Skeptical Science

Open access notables

Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy et al., Environmental Research Letters

Warming-induced emissions (WIE) of greenhouse gases from natural sources are a large amplifying feedback that most climate models do not yet represent. This absence risks systematic underestimation of projected future warming and overestimation of remaining carbon budgets. To assess the potential magnitude of these feedbacks, we derived relationships between global temperature and WIE rates from process-based model estimates across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP4-6.0. The warming-induced methane emission rate from permafrost, wetlands, freshwaters, and wildfire combined increases with temperature at an estimated 97 ± 6 Tg CH4 yr−1 °C−1 across all three scenarios, while the warming-induced carbon dioxide emission rate from permafrost and wildfire combined increases at 7 ± 1 Pg CO2 yr−1 °C−1 in SSP2-4.5 and SSP4-6.0. Using the MAGICC climate model, we projected that WIE could add 0.2 °C–0.4 °C of warming by 2100 across scenarios, split roughly equally between carbon dioxide and methane, amplifying post-2020 anthropogenic warming by 20%–30%. Combined emission sensitivity and climate response 1σ uncertainties are ±0.2 °C on the added warming and ±10%–30% on the warming amplification.

Interpreting Ensembles of Climate Projections for Impact Studies, Chandler & Brierley, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change

To study the potential impacts of future changes in the earth's climate, projections of these changes are required. These are usually produced using complex computer models, and are subject to many uncertainties which are often sampled using collections (“ensembles”) of model simulations. However, the sampling in any individual ensemble is incomplete and often unrepresentative. This creates challenges for users of the projections, especially when it is important to understand the range of potential impacts that can reasonably be expected. Other challenges include the presence of systematic discrepancies between the model outputs and observations of the real climate system; and the fact that it is often infeasible to work with all members of an ensemble so that an appropriate subset must be chosen. Various approaches have been suggested for addressing each of these issues: a critical review is provided here, to allow an informed choice depending on the requirements of a given application.

The emergence of climate migration research as an academic field, Kohutova et al., Frontiers in Climat

This study examines how research on climate migration has developed from a dispersed topic of academic interest into a distinct academic field. Although the links between environment and human mobility have been studied for over a century, less attention has been paid to how knowledge has been structured and institutionalized around this topic. To address this gap, the article examines how climate migration scholarship has grown, organized its scholarly community, and gained recognition from external actors. Drawing on theories of field formation, we analyse four dimensions of academic fields: differentiation from other research areas, epistemic and social coherence among scholars, their social infrastructure and legitimacy-building. The study uses a mixed-methods approach combining bibliometric analysis, document and policy review, and expert interviews. The findings show that the formation of climate migration as a research field was a cumulative process. Policy attention brought resources for more research, while a shared understanding that climate migration is driven by multiple interacting factors, not climate alone, gave scholars common ground to organize around. Expanding citations and co-authorships networks then gave the field its structure over time. However, the field formation remains uneven. The networks are geographically uneven, research is being published across hundreds of journals, and theoretical frameworks are underdeveloped. Overall, the article shows how new research topics consolidate as academic fields and argues that the label of ‘research field' is not merely descriptive because it impacts visibility, resources, and epistemic authority.

Future warming enhances rates of population increase of arthropod crop pests globally, Molina et al., Ecography

We compiled a dataset on the thermal biology of arthropod crop pests and fitted TPCs to examine the projected shifts in performance under historic and future climates relative to their thermal niches, which were examined through modelling the latitudinal variation of their population-level thermal limits. Our findings highlight that most arthropod crop pests are projected to increase their thermal potential for population growth under warming by 2050, with temperate populations retaining room to grow but tropical populations increasingly exposed to heat stress. These findings can be explained by the asymmetric variation of thermal niche limits for these intrinsic rates of population increase, since we found that lower thermal limits declined with latitude, while upper thermal limits remained constant.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Communicating about Climate and Clean Energy in an Age of Affordability, Andrea Everett, Heatmap and Embold Research

Each phase of research built on the previous one, starting with a large national survey to uncover the core values, priorities, and beliefs of three broad segments of the electorate with different views of climate change. These groups were labelled as Skeptics, Persuadables, and Persuadeds. For climate and clean energy communicators, the electorate is best understood as three distinct audiences. Persuadeds already believe in the 11 urgency of climate action and clean energy. What they lack is the conviction that their own actions matter, so the core tasks are to give them concrete, achievable things to do and to help them see that their efforts matter. Persuadables are open but unconvinced, and on the central issue of clean energy affordability they demand proof they can see close to home, rather than broad statistics or slogans. Skeptics, meanwhile, may be reachable through appeals to their values of personal freedom and energy independence, supplemented by evidence on cost and reliability, but with so few trusted messengers to make the case, clean energy remains a tough sell.

What are the top social media platforms used by each of Global Warming’s Six Americas?, Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

In Fall 2025, as part of a biannual Climate Change in the American Mind survey, the authors asked a nationally representative sample of Americans (n = 1,146) how often they visit 14 different social media platforms. They were also asked how often they hear about global warming on social media. Across Global Warming’s Six Americas, the most commonly visited social media platforms are YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. The Alarmed hear about global warming on social media more often than other segments of the Six Americas. 94 articles in 53 journals by 625 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Contrasting SST modes explain decadal intensification of Pacific Walker Circulation, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109338

Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e24

Substantial contribution of land-atmosphere interactions to the intensification of compound drought and heatwave events under rising CO2, Xing et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105722

Warming of the subpolar North Pacific accelerated by sea ice retreat and wind changes, Ge et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01541-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Transient overturning changes cause an upper-ocean nutrient decline in a warming climate, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52200-0 13 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Extreme Dry and Humid Heat Seasons Are Changing Asymmetrically, Ivanovich et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026av002516

Global drought shows no detectable recent acceleration under climate warming, Xu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03954-6

In situ observations reveal continental-scale warming, oxygen decline, and eutrophication in U.S. estuaries, Reinl et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03934-w

Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia, Barlow et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1

State of Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025: A Review, Marengo et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70581

Warming accelerates drought–flood oscillations and stratifies socioeconomic exposure, Qi et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag283

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004772 22 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A global hourly ISIMIP3 climate forcing dataset for impact modeling, Bechtold et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6637-2026

Interpreting Ensembles of Climate Projections for Impact Studies, Chandler & Brierley, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70088

Introduction to the Concept of Regional Frameworks for Climate Services (RFCS), Golding et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-25-0207.1

Regularized Fingerprinting with Linearly Optimal Weight Matrix in Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, Li & Li, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0740.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is a heat wave: A survey and literature synthesis of heat wave definitions across the United States, PLOS Climate, 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000468 18 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Central Asian Future Dynamics of Coldwave and Cold Spell Under Changing Climate, Ledari et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70585

Evaluating Changes in Convective Environments Over Subtropical South America Under Forced and Natural Climate Variability, Chakraborty et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl125330

Global shifts in mountain wave turbulence within high resolution climate models, Smith et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1733-2026

High-resolution projections of summer compound humid-heat extremes and GDP exposure in Eastern China, Yang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109341

Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Forcings on Tropical Cyclone Frequency in Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations, Henry et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0442.1

Projected Changes in Wind Hazards From Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in the Northeastern U.S., Valle et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046823

Projecting Compound Wind-Rainfall Hazards From Tropical Cyclones in China Under Climate Change, Xu et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008431

Projecting Spatial Synchrony and Socioeconomic Risk of Heatwaves and Extreme Precipitation in the future, Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100958

The Future of Atmospheric Heatwaves in Chile Projected by a Regional Climate Model, Petit-Laurent et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70567

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01511-4 53 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A global hourly ISIMIP3 climate forcing dataset for impact modeling, Bechtold et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6637-2026

Current model capabilities and future predictive pathways of wildfires under a changing climate, Whaley et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04013-w

Deciphering the Link Between Modeling Errors and the North Atlantic Surface Warming Pattern Projected by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models, Douville et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122158

Improving soil temperature simulation accuracy in Arctic permafrost regions by incorporation surface organic layer in CLM5.0, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111476

Interpreting Ensembles of Climate Projections for Impact Studies, Chandler & Brierley, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70088

Km-scale regional coupled system in the Northwest European shelf for weather and climate applications: RCS-UKC4, Berthou et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-8535-2026

The added value of Med-CORDEX coupled high-resolution regional climate models in representing sea surface temperature and marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea, Rovere et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-2725-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.914 115 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Illusory early-warning signals of Greenland Ice Sheet destabilization, Robel et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2623190123

On thin glacial ice: New Austrian Glacier Inventory shows accelerating glacier shrinkage and 31 % area loss within two decades, Hartl et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-5157-2026

Projecting the evolution of the Northern Patagonian Icefield until the year 2200, Schaefer et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-5115-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004561 73 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Recognition of two potential warming events in the Paleocene terrestrial record of North America and associated mammalian responses, Secord et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag289

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Opposing Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability Produced by Orbital and Anthropogenic Forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109897 8 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Biome classification across global vegetation models reveals consistent biome shifts under future climate change, Scheiter et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-6409-2026

Broad-scale shift in dominance of arbuscular mycorrhizal trees along the Japanese archipelago associated with tree diseases and climate warming, Schaefer et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77711-w

Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Artemisia annua in China Under Climate Change Scenarios, Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74236

Evolution of flowering phenology over 44 years of climate change, Deurs et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2613665123

Experimental evidence of a biological soil crust degradation climate warming amplification feedback, Smith et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03874-5

Long-Term Warming Reduces Bacterial Diversity and Functional Potential in Temperate Forest Soil, Liu et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71104

Seasonally asymmetric warming reshapes grassland stability across timescales, Lu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2608466123

The projected risk of plant invasions on the peri-Antarctic islands under climate change, Vorstenbosch et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08195

When warming stops lengthening the growing season: Insights from two decades of forest phenology in Central Europe, Nasiri et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111457

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global change and premature hatching of aquatic embryos, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17488 22 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Assessment of Spatial Downscaling Used in Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates, Sun et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008225

Forest Floor Protection: The Critical Defense Against Post-Harvest Soil Carbon Loss, Wallace et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg009694

From abandoned fishponds to mature mangroves: the integrated CO2 balance of two contrasting coastal wetland landscapes, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111469

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Refines the Time of Emergence of Sea Level Rise in the Northwestern Pacific, Kang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008543

Imaging deep carbon stocks with complex electrical conductivity, Orozco et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-6287-2026

Inefficient consumption of natural gas drives methane emissions from a megacity, Zhao et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-12911-2026

Methane emissions from municipal solid waste landfills in Tehran: Field measurements and modeling of a NASA-identified global super-emitter, Hassanabadi et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122355

Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e24

Spatial-Temporal Distribution Dynamics of Carbon Storage of Dominant Species in a Subtropical Evergreen Broad-Leaved Forest and Its Influencing Factors, Duan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jg008947

White Carbon: Bringing Managed Salterns Into Coastal Carbon Accounting, He, Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg010199

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global riverine land-to-ocean carbon export constrained by observations and multi-model assessment, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01524-z 96 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

CCS deployment policy choices under regional heterogeneity: Economy-wide impacts and spillovers in China, Xiao et al., Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115616

Deterministic Cost Estimation Approaches for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: A Review, Mohajeri & Azadbakht, Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.70043

Marine carbon removal at a crossroads, Macreadie et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02740-8

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Enhancing electrochemical carbon dioxide capture with supercapacitors, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52219-3 61 cites.

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Decarbonization

A 250-kilowatt system for co-production of hydrogen and fresh water from seawater, Jiang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02130-6

Accelerating renewable energy transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from Latin America, Moyo & Oree, Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102137

Critical gaps remain in carbon accounting at mine sites, Mervine et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2026.2730003

Photovoltaic deployment strategies for net-zero commercial buildings in India: A climate-zoned benchmarking approach, Azeem & Thomas, Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102135

Physical and Biogeochemical Ocean Response to Potential Offshore Wind Development Along the U.S. West Coast, Jacox et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123676

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Permeability partitioning through the brittle-to-ductile transition and its implications for supercritical geothermal reservoirs, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52092-0 29 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on rangeland productivity and animal production in Africa, Ho et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1869700

Land Radiative Management Increases Heat Stress in Some Humid Regions, Cheng & McColl, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125630

Pathway-dependent responses of temperature extremes under solar radiation modification over Northern Africa, Sian et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2026.1884589

Aerosols

Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosol-Forced North Atlantic SST Variability on the Simulated Historical Global Warming, Rashid, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124086

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Surface albedo regulates aerosol direct climate effect, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52255-z 28 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Patient knowledge and views on the health impacts of climate change in primary care: a cross-sectional survey study, Stewart et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1930073

Shifting configurations of nationalism, populism, and conservatism: far-right environmental discourse on agriculture, climate, and energy, Lambrechts & Cleen, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2728447

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tackling the academic air travel dependency. An analysis of the (in)consistency between academics’ travel behaviour and their attitudes, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102908 27 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Evaluating climate-driven agricultural suitability models for adaptation planning: stakeholder insights from British Columbia, Vakhshoori et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1928659

Exploring Behavioral and Social Dynamics in Crop Insurance Adoption amid Climate Change: Evidence from Paddy Farmers in Tamil Nadu, India, Thiyaharajan et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0063.1

Future warming enhances rates of population increase of arthropod crop pests globally, Molina et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08568

Impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on rangeland productivity and animal production in Africa, Ho et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1869700

Local climate variability indicators show differentiated socioecological impacts and opportunities for agroforestry-based adaptation in the Colombian Andean-Amazon, Ángel-Sánchez et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1881072

Minimizing climate change adaptation trade-offs in African rangelands, Clark et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-026-01938-0

New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates, Moore et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02749-z

Participatory assessment of agricultural value chain dynamics and market opportunities for smallholder farmers in climate-vulnerable coastal Bangladesh, Kabir et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-71038-8

Rethinking climate vulnerability in livestock systems: evidence from exposure, adaptation, and within-system heterogeneity in West Africa, Adéchian et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1868024

Sustainable grazing management supports climate change mitigation in a mediterranean pasture, Ishaq et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1917508

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture, Science, 10.1126/science.adn3747 524 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Extreme Dry and Humid Heat Seasons Are Changing Asymmetrically, Ivanovich et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026av002516

Intensified Warm-Season Nighttime Precipitation over Large Tibetan Plateau Lakes: Evidence from Satellite Observations, Yang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.006

Water governance under pressure: neoliberal structures and collaborative freshwater management in Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, Tariq et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1840817

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100676 17 cites.

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Climate change economics

Green energy and the shadow economy: implications for environmental sustainability in G7 countries, Uddin et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1871821

Guaranteed income as an anticipatory action for climate change and disaster preparedness in the US, Prandoni et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1838033

Rethinking overseas expansion: climate risk and Chinese corporations’ cross-border mergers and acquisitions, Guo & Wu, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1896051

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The role of green financial sector initiatives in the low-carbon transition: A theory of change, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102915 30 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Carbon mitigation governance strategies in Morocco, China, and Norway, Nefzi & Bouzidi, Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-04602-x

Framing the transition: How consultants shape public energy governance in Sweden, Reindl et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104959

Strategic pathways for decarbonization: a data-driven typology to strengthen climate policy, Bento et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.33600992.v1

Tripartite evolutionary game analysis of emission reduction in EU road freight transport under ETD and ETS2 policies, Cai et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1921416

Varieties of decarbonization: Comparing state narratives of Germany, India, and Mexico, Zambianchi et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115598

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The impact of electricity market reform on renewable energy production, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114306 35 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessing landslide probability changes under climate change scenarios as a basis for adaptation strategies, Chu et al., Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 10.1007/s10064-026-05309-z

Compound and heterogeneous relationships between climate extremes and global net migration, Petrova et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02752-4

Knowledge co-production and co-dissemination for climate change adaptation: insights based on Chokwe district, Mozambique, Jonas et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1935074

On race, racism and racialization: reflections on climate mobility, Baldwin, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2729553

The emergence of climate migration research as an academic field, Kohutova et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1825882

Weather extremes in migration dynamics: evidence from the Philippines, Innocenti & Randelli, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-67411-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is limiting how we imagine climate change adaptation?, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101476 45 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Balancing urban green space benefits and vector-borne disease risk under climate change: Critical decision-making for 21st century public health, Ferguson et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001016

Impact of Climate Warming on All-Causes Mortality in China: The Role of Non-Optimal Temperature Exposure and Multi-Scenario Projections to 2050, He et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gh001897

Intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios, Peisker et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103224

Patient knowledge and views on the health impacts of climate change in primary care: a cross-sectional survey study, Stewart et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1930073

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100704 24 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate Change and Outdoor Sport in Chile: A Review of Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation, Carrasco, Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0217.1

Other

A strengthening yet less extreme Atlantic–European jet during winter, Brönnimann et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02069-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season despite Strong El Niño Conditions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0305.1 15 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: State of art and scientific challenges, Advances in Climate Change Research, 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.003 75 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Indiana Renewables and the Residential Real Estate Market, Faulk et al., Purdue Extension Community Development and The Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University

This brief summarizes the findings of two larger reports examining how proximity to commercial wind turbines or large solar projects affect house values in Indiana. Using data from 2004 to 2024, the authors provide state-specific estimates to inform state and local officials and residents. They found no statistically significant negative effects on residential property values associated with proximity to large wind or utility-scale solar projects in Indiana.

Sustainability in Action 2026. The new rules of business resilience, Sweep and Cap Gemini

Climate disruption is costing companies now and the data cannot keep up. 94% of businesses report climate-related financial losses over the past two years, but 79% say their data is not sufficient to inform strategy. Fragmented data is the biggest thing standing between leaders and climate action Top barriers to sustainability data infrastructure, as reported by senior leaders: 34% limited system integration; 34% scaling across geographies; 31% incomplete Scope 3 or supplier data. These data may be behind, but the returns are already here. Share of leaders reporting measurable ROI today, by area: 43% from better procurement and supply chain efficiency; 52% from reduced regulatory and compliance costs; 41% from improved risk management.

Consumer Attitudes on Corporate Climate Action: Insights for Today’s Business Environment, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Maslansky + Partners, and Potential Energy

The business landscape around climate action has shifted dramatically. But not in the ways heated policy debates might suggest. An in-depth analysis of consumer attitudes via a survey of 2,000 voters across the U.S. reflecting a representative range of political affiliations, ages, and incomes supports a different conclusion. It reveals something surprising for some: despite increased political polarization and a challenging regulatory environment, the business case for climate action has continued holding strong. What’s more, the authors suggest that corporate retreat from environmental commitments carries more reputational and financial risk than maintaining a clear, consistent stance. And perhaps most surprisingly, even those skeptical of climate policy remain open to the business case. Across party lines, strong majorities believe that climate action is smart business and would support companies that invest in clean energy and limit climate pollution.

What are the top social media platforms used by each of Global Warming’s Six Americas?, Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

In Fall 2025, as part of a biannual Climate Change in the American Mind survey, the authors asked a nationally representative sample of Americans (n = 1,146) how often they visit 14 different social media platforms. They were also asked how often they hear about global warming on social media. Across Global Warming’s Six Americas, the most commonly visited social media platforms are YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. The Alarmed hear about global warming on social media more often than other segments of the Six Americas.

California IOU Grid Capacity to Fully Serve Local Load with Distributed Solar+Storage Systems during Summer Peak/Net Peak Hours https://www.kevala.com/resources/grid-capacity-to-serve-local-load, Kevala, The Coalition for Community Solar Access

The authors estimate the amount and geographic concentration of large investor-owned utility (IOU) distribution-connected load in California that could be served by fully exporting front-of-the-meter distributed solar+storage resources, such as community solar+storage, or storage-only resources during summer peak and net peak demand hours without back-feeding onto the sub-transmission or transmission system. Specifically, the authors estimate the total load and corresponding number of 5-MW systems, each discharging at full capacity for 4 hours, that could be interconnected to the distribution grid and operated from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. from June through September, with the discharged electricity being fully absorbed by local load behind each substation.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative: An Initiative of Eastern States of the United States, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Inc., Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Inc

The participating states of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) released a report tracking the investment of proceeds generated from RGGI’s regional CO2 allowance auctions. The report tracks investments of RGGI proceeds in 2024 and summarizes how these investments promote ratepayer affordability, drive pollution reduction, and deliver additional benefits across the region. The RGGI states have individual discretion over how to invest proceeds according to state specific goals. Accordingly, states direct funds to a wide variety of programs, touching all aspects of the energy sector. In 2024, $856 million in RGGI proceeds were invested in programs including energy efficiency, clean and renewable energy, beneficial electrification, greenhouse gas abatement, and direct bill assistance. Over their lifetime, these 2024 investments are projected to provide participating households and businesses with $2.6 billion in energy bill savings and avoid the emission of 4.4 million short tons of CO2. The largest share of the investments was directed to energy efficiency, with 46% of the 2024 total. Other categories receiving significant investments include direct bill assistance, clean and renewable energy programs, beneficial electrification, and greenhouse gas abatement and climate adaptation programs.

Communicating about Climate and Clean Energy in an Age of Affordability, Andrea Everett, Heatmap and Embold Research

Each phase of research built on the previous one, starting with a large national survey to uncover the core values, priorities, and beliefs of three broad segments of the electorate with different views of climate change. These groups were labelled as Skeptics, Persuadables, and Persuadeds. For climate and clean energy communicators, the electorate is best understood as three distinct audiences. Persuadeds already believe in the 11 urgency of climate action and clean energy. What they lack is the conviction that their own actions matter, so the core tasks are to give them concrete, achievable things to do and to help them see that their efforts matter. Persuadables are open but unconvinced, and on the central issue of clean energy affordability they demand proof they can see close to home, rather than broad statistics or slogans. Skeptics, meanwhile, may be reachable through appeals to their values of personal freedom and energy independence, supplemented by evidence on cost and reliability, but with so few trusted messengers to make the case, clean energy remains a tough sell.

Ahead of the Deal: How the United States Can Build an Energy Project Pipeline in Emerging Markets, Katie Auth, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The author argues that global U.S. electricity investment initiatives keep falling short for the same reason. Regardless of the divergent objectives and political rationales that drove each administration’s efforts, they all tried to mobilize private capital into energy projects using the same strategy: supporting individual deals at the very latest stages of project development. This works relatively well in mature economies, but not in the many emerging markets where few projects ever reach that point. The approach simply does not fit the reality of what is needed in the energy sectors of most emerging markets today. And it has left the primary implementer of U.S. development finance, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), with too few good projects in which to put its capital. To build a diversified pipeline of high-quality energy projects that feeds the DFC’s portfolio for years to come, achieves U.S. strategic goals, and expands commercial opportunities for American firms and technologies, U.S. development finance must pivot in three key ways including incentivize strategic, early-stage risk, delegate origination to external partners, and focus assistance on grid systems and procurement.

West-wide Transmission Study: 10-Year Horizon Report, Western Transmission Expansion Coalition

The 10-year Horizon Study offers a holistic, integrated evaluation of Western interregional transmission needs, with a focus on identifying transmission gaps and filling them with actionable projects. In performing the assessment, drivers of the growing need for transmission over the approaching 10 years became clear. Western Transmission Expansion Coalition's (WestTEC) forecasts show Western peak electric demand increasing by 30% in the next decade. This increase is more than three times greater than what the West experienced over the last decade. Nameplate generation capacity is anticipated to increase by 76% in the next decade, more than twice the historical rate. Plans to procure intermittent resources by several Western entities will increase reliance on transmission to manage supply variability. By 2035 the Western grid will increasingly depend on the geographic diversity of load and generation to maintain reliability, which drives high-volume power flows across and between regions. Extreme events requiring transfers between entities occur during summer and winter peaks, cold snaps, and periods of high generation output. This highlights how diversity strengthens the system but requires transmission capacity to do so.

The Cost of Heat: Managing Pennsylvania’s Thermal Transition, Kristin George Bagdanov and Kevin Carbonnier, Building Decarbonization Coalition

The authors call for a managed gas transition: a coordinated, regulator-led strategy to limit unnecessary gas investment, retire portions of the gas system where cost-effective alternatives exist, and protect customers and workers during the shift to cleaner heating and cooling. This managed gas transition is one part of a broader thermal transition: the long-term shift toward cleaner, more affordable, and better-coordinated systems for delivering heat. The analysis that follows traces how Act 11 accelerated gas system spending, how those costs affect customer bills, and why neighborhood.

The Impact of Climate and Environmental Change on Brain Health, Ikiz et al., International Neuro Climate Working Group

The authors synthesize the current scientific evidence on how climate related environmental exposures affect neurological health, mental health, cognition, neurodevelopment, and healthy brain aging. In addition to presenting the Neuro Climate Framework, the authors identify priority directions for future research through the Neuro Climate Research Agenda and outlines stakeholder-specific recommendations through the Neuro Climate Action Roadmap, providing practical guidance for researchers, policymakers, healthcare professionals, educators, communities, individuals, and international organizations.

2026 NYC Heat-Related Mortality Report, Bureau of Environmental Surveillance and Policy, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene

Heat contributes to the deaths of approximately 500 New Yorkers, on average, each year during the warm season of May through September. Inequities by race and income persist in the people and neighborhoods most impacted. Deaths across all races, however, were more common at home, underscoring the importance of access to and affordability of home cooling to prevent death. The authors report estimated trends in heat-exacerbated deaths for the current and past several decades (1974-2023) in 10-year rolling time windows to provide more stable estimates than previous 5-year aggregation and align with the 10-year period used to describe the temperature-risk relationship in the report. For heat-stress deaths, counts and the annual average for the past ten years (2016-2025) are reported.

Disaster Risk: Improvements Needed to Enhance FEMA’s National Risk Index, Currie et al., United States Government Accountability Office

The authors found that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) partially followed leading practices for risk assessment and information quality during the development, operation, and maintenance of the National Risk Index (NRI). The authors made three recommendations, including that FEMA provide information to users on how to apply NRI results effectively and systematically solicit, collect, and incorporate user feedback to inform NRI improvements.

Winter 2026 Arctic Events: A System Performance Review, Clark et al., Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation

This system performance review focuses on understanding what occurred during the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period. The authors also highlight cold weather preparation improvements made prior to the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period that supported reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System during the period. The authors engaged with numerous electric and natural gas entities across the eastern half of the United States3 and Texas to gather the information necessary to provide an overview of the performance of the Bulk-Power System and natural gas system during the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period. The authors' analysis shows that the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period was fundamentally an endurance challenge (sustained reliable operation during extended periods of system stress) that stretched electric and natural gas systems for several days, revealing how extended cold snaps amplify risks across generator performance, fuel supply chains, load forecasting, interregional energy transfers, and system operators. Electric entities reported multi-day reliability challenges driven by equipment cold weather limitations, deferred maintenance, and constrained fuel availability, while natural gas systems faced infrastructure constraints, production obstacles, and logistical barriers that affected upstream deliveries and non-fuel consumables.

Wetlands for Climate Partnership Report (California), Pietri et al., The Nature Conservancy et al

California has lost more than 90% of its historic wetlands, prompting major state investments through initiatives such as AB 1757, CARB’s Scoping Plan, Pathways to 30x30, and Proposition 4. Drawing on workshops, agency discussions, and practitioner engagement conducted from 2024 to 2026, the authors present current progress, persistent barriers, and key opportunities to accelerate wetland restoration and management needed to achieve California’s climate, resilience, and biodiversity goals.

Spending and Safety Outcomes in U.S. Gas Distribution Systems: An Assessment of DIMP & PHMSA’s Call to Action, Seavey et al., The Future of Heat Initiative

Over the past 15 years, two federal initiatives — the Gas Distribution Integrity Management Program rule and Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration's Call to Action — have fundamentally reshaped how U.S. gas utilities invest in safety, one by promoting integrity management and the other by encouraging accelerated replacement of certain pipelines. The authors presents the first comprehensive evaluation of these initiatives. They found that utility safety spending has been significantly misallocated: since 2011, capital spending is up 200% and customer delivery charges have nearly doubled, yet measured safety outcomes have not improved commensurately. The analysis traces this divergence to regulatory frameworks that often fail to ensure that capital investments are guided by rigorous risk assessment and systematic evaluation of alternative risk-mitigation strategies. The authors urge state and federal regulators, utilities, and other interested parties to take action to improve outcomes for the public.

A fossil-free Australia: An ambitious Paris-aligned phase-out of coal, gas and oil from the national energy system, Houlie et al., Climate Analytics

The authors show that Australia can meet its climate goals and reach net zero emissions by phasing out fossil fuels. The authors modelled a new Fossil Fuel Phase-out (FFPO) scenario, a Paris-aligned pathway for Australia informed by the latest global evidence. This scenarios' results are then compared to the Australian government's current policies - the Current Policy Projections (CPP) scenario. A fossil fuel phase-out for Australia to meet its climate commitments and to play its role in global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C is urgent. The authors show this is possible in all sectors, present policies the government needs to adopt, and highlight what the government is not doing - or needs to be doing more of. The government needs to start this phase-out now.

Global Snapshot of Climate-related School Disruptions in 2025, Ji et al., United Nations Children's Fund

Globally, at least 171 million students – from pre-primary to upper secondary education – experienced school disruptions due to climate events in 2025. Climate-related school disruptions in 2025 could cost affected students at least US$200 billion in lifetime earnings through lost learning and widening education inequities. At least 1 in 10 students had their schooling disrupted due to climate-related hazards in 2025. 75 per cent of the 171 million affected students are in low- and lower middle-income countries. Schools in 106 countries or territories were affected by climate hazards, with 40 countries experiencing multiple instances of school disruptions.

Methane Made in America, University of California, Los Angeles, School of Law

The authors provide a user-friendly ranking of the Top 10 oil and gas sites in three basins, Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville, as seen by one of the most sophisticated methane-detection satellites in the world. The authors define the Top 10 sites as those with the highest average methane emission rate observed from January 1,?2025, to June 1,?2026, by the Tanager-1 satellite, excluding sources with two or fewer detected plumes. Where possible, the authors also identify the “potentially responsible operator” of each site and give information on the site’s public health effects.

Ratepayer Impacts of Arizona Public Service’s Gas Resources, McGarvey et al., Sierra Club and Synapse Energy Economics

Natural gas purchases to fuel Arizona Public Service (APS) power plants currently account for 5% of residential bills. Gas prices can be affected by external factors including global geopolitical events and domestic extreme weather events. Therefore, APS’s reliance on gas resources exposes ratepayers to fuel price volatility risk. Gas price spikes could increase average residential customer bills by over $9 per month. Data centers are driving up electricity demand in Arizona. Since its 2023 Integrated Resource Plan, APS has increased its' planned additions for 2030 by 4.6 GW to meet increased demand. APS is responding by increasing its' reliance on gas. APS plans to increase nameplate capacity of natural gas from 5.1 GW in 2023 to 7.8 GW in 2030, a 48% increase. Gas could make up 32% of the company's generation mix, compared to 19% in 2023. This will lock customers into increased bills for many years and increase ratepayer exposure to gas price risks. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sanket Jain

Extreme heat and widespread drought related to climate change have been in the headlines this summer everywhere from Europe to the Colorado River Basin to Puerto Rico and Bangladesh. But drought is only the beginning of the problem for drinking water. Scientists say the depleted groundwater supplies that remain will warm by 2.1 degrees C globally by the end of this century – changing their chemistry and leading to contamination. 

And heat is just one concern. Droughts and fluctuating rainfall patterns are also altering groundwater quality. The good news is that around the world, local and regional authorities are experimenting with ways to replenish groundwater, including methods for collecting excess rainfall or surface runoff and channeling it to replenish aquifers. The work is in early stages, but some methods already are showing promise.

Warming water, changing chemistry 

As groundwater warms, dissolved gases become less soluble, while organisms underground can consume oxygen more rapidly. Because many aquifers already contain little oxygen, modest warming could make them even more oxygen-poor. 

In some aquifers, this shift can mobilize naturally occurring contaminants such as arsenic, manganese, and phosphorus from surrounding rocks into groundwater, making it less safe to drink. The extra phosphorus can fuel harmful algal blooms when groundwater eventually flows into rivers and lakes. Warmer groundwater may also favor pathogens linked to waterborne diseases.

Under a stable climate, Earth gets warmer deeper underground because heat from the Earth’s core moves toward the cooler land surface, explained Barret Kurylyk, a professor of civil and resource engineering at Dalhousie University and Canada Research Chair in Coastal Water Resources. 

“In the past few decades, the land surface has warmed due to climate change,” he said. 

As the surface becomes warmer than shallow aquifers, the usual temperature difference reverses, causing heat to move downward toward groundwater. Movement of rain or snow downward can also transfer heat into groundwater, exacerbating the change in groundwater chemistry. 

This heat transfer matters because groundwater accounts for 99% of the Earth’s liquid freshwater, provides about half the world’s drinking water, and supplies nearly 40% of the water used for irrigation. By 2100, an estimated 77-188 million people are expected to live in areas where groundwater exceeds the highest drinking-water temperature acceptable threshold adopted by any country.

What happens after a drought

In the remote Kasanal village in Southern India’s Karnataka state, Santosh Naik says the annual monsoon is no longer enough to fill his two wells. The 38-year-old farmer said that by August 2026, his 60-foot wells were 90% empty, even though they would normally fill within a month of the rains. 

Naik has spent over a decade drilling deeper in search of water. Since 2011, he has dug 14 borewells – narrow, machine-drilled shafts – across his five-acre farm, each about 300 feet underground. Now only three are functioning. But he is not just worried about declining levels. The water quality is changing too, he says.

“Earlier, we used to drink water from borewells and wells, but if you drink that water now, you will definitely fall ill,” he said. 

He added that the entire village has stopped drinking water from its wells. 

Naik grows sugarcane, soybean, peanuts and sorghum, but his harvests have been falling as his water supply has gotten saltier. Since 2020, his annual sugarcane production has been about 80,000 kilograms lower, costing him about 280,000 Indian rupees ($2,935). 

His experience illustrates a broader problem across India. An analysis of 20,994 groundwater observations estimated that about 29% of the study area, including 25% of cropland, had elevated groundwater salinity. 

Changing contaminants 

Scientists confirm that climate extremes can change how water moves through the soil and what it carries. One team monitored 13 groundwater wells across three aquifer systems in Germany for up to eight years. As groundwater levels declined, its molecular composition increasingly resembled that of water draining through the soil. 

Senior study author Gerd Gleixner, a biogeochemist and professor at the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, said that during drought, larger pores open up in soils. When heavy rain follows, these pores can carry water rapidly toward groundwater instead of allowing it to move slowly through the upper soil. 

“The problem is that this water that comes down is not supposed to go down directly. It is supposed to go more slowly, so that there is more time for progressive processing in the upper part,” Gleixner said. 

The upper soil normally acts as a kind of “main bioreactor,” processing substances before they reach the groundwater. But rapid flow through these pores can bypass some of this processing, allowing substances from the surface to reach groundwater more directly.

Gleixner said this rapid downward movement can carry unwanted substances from the surface into groundwater, including antibiotics and, potentially, microplastics. 

Scientists are also investigating what happens to groundwater when it is pumped more heavily during droughts. Researchers in California’s San Joaquin Valley analyzed water-quality records from over 3,000 public drinking-water wells over the 2012-2016 drought and the recovery that followed. During the drought, nitrate and total dissolved solids increased in many wells. As pumping intensified, wells drew a larger share of modern-aged groundwater, which was more likely to contain contaminants linked to human activities, such as nitrate. As wetter conditions returned and groundwater levels recovered, many of these changes reversed.

The water people once trusted

Farmer Shivaji Tasgave, 83, no longer trusts the water from a 200-year-old well that served his family for generations after it turned blackish and foul-smelling. 

But when the rains failed to arrive as expected, he was forced to rely on this water to irrigate his crops. Half his peanut and sugarcane failed to grow. 

In his remote Jambhali village in Western India, Tasgave said that almost 150 wells in his neighborhood have become unusable because of deteriorating groundwater quality.

Along coastlines, groundwater quality can change when the balance between freshwater flowing toward the sea and seawater moving inland is disturbed. Under natural conditions, groundwater flows from land toward the sea, creating a pressure that helps keep seawater from moving inland. When that freshwater pressure weakens, seawater can move farther inland into freshwater aquifers.

A team of scientists in Germany found many coastal groundwater systems are vulnerable to this shift. Between 1990 and 2024, they analyzed about 480,000 coastal groundwater monitoring locations worldwide. They found statistically significant groundwater-level changes in 28% of observations over nine-year windows, and 21% over 19-year windows. Declines became more frequent in the last nine years. 

“These declines may reflect a combination of causes, including lower rainfall, drought and reduced groundwater recharge, but also potentially unsustainable groundwater abstraction that exceeds groundwater recharge,” said Annika Nolte, an environmental and data scientist at the University of Bremen, Germany, who led the study.

“Seawater intrusion can make groundwater less suitable or unsuitable for human consumption and may ultimately threaten reliable drinking-water supplies from wells,” she added. 

When saline groundwater is used for irrigation, it can also reduce soil fertility and crop yields. A global meta-analysis found that irrigation with salty water reduced crop yields by 17.3% compared with freshwater irrigation.

Giving groundwater a chance to recover

In many parts of the world, researchers are experimenting with different ways to help aquifers recover. Monitoring groundwater levels and salinity, and improving estimates of present and future groundwater recharge, are essential to determine how much water can be withdrawn without weakening freshwater heads, Nolte said.

In the Netherlands, a solution named "Water Battery" has been operating near the village of Epe since 2015. Water from natural springs is collected in a human-made reservoir and then pumped to infiltration ponds, where it seeps into the groundwater. The water is stored underground, while natural biogeochemical processes improve its quality before the groundwater is extracted.

California has been adopting a similar strategy. Excess surface water can be diverted onto selected farm fields to replenish depleted aquifers, increasing groundwater storage and improving water availability during dry periods. Separate field studies in California almond orchards have also shown that flooding fields during the trees’ dormant winter period, in moderately drained to well-drained soils, has little effect on root production or crop yields. 

Cities are also finding ways to use stormwater effectively. In the Argentine coastal city of Pinamar, researchers evaluated rain gardens, which are shallow, planted areas designed to collect stormwater and let it soak into the ground. Gardens improved groundwater recharge, particularly during low-intensity rains, where recharge efficiency increased more than sixfold. 

Although the approaches differ, the idea remains the same: Instead of moving excess water away, let the ground hold on to it. 

This article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

 

//

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

A few days ago, on an atmospheric sciences mailing list, Prof. Gary Lackmann pointed out that August 2026 set a record for the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. I thought this was right in TCB’s wheelhouse, so I’ve dug further into the numbers in this post.

What does “precipitable water” mean?

Precipitable water (abbreviated PWAT) is the water in the atmosphere that’s available to condense and fall as rain or snow. We quantify it by calculating how deep a puddle it would make if you condensed all of the water vapor in the atmosphere and rained it to the surface. The value is typically reported in millimeters.

Here is the average PWAT over the 1991–2020 period. The global average is about 24 mm, enough to make a puddle about an inch deep.

The distribution of PWAT follows the distribution of temperature. The reason is thermodynamics: the amount of water vapor that air can hold increases by roughly 7% for every degree Celsius of warming, following the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. The result is high PWAT in warm tropics and low PWAT in cold polar regions.

It is increasing

The planet has been warming, so you might expect that the PWAT should also be rising. Indeed, this is what we see. Here is global-mean PWAT for every August since 1979.

Also plotted is the August global average temperature; it’s also going up. In fact, we see the expected correlation (r = 0.86) between PWAT and temperature.

August 2026’s PWAT was 1.5 mm above the average PWAT in August of the 1980s, a difference of 5.8%. This is in the ballpark of what we would expect given the ~1°C of global average warming over this period.

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We’re #1

A few days ago, news came out that August 2026 was the hottest month in the last 170 years. Yup, climate change strikes again (with an assist from El Niño).

link

Therefore, it might not be too surprising that August 2026 also set a record for PWAT, 27.35 mm, beating the previous record (July 2024) by 0.04 mm1.

The data I analyzed only goes back to 1979, but given the very strong connection between PWAT and temperature, it is unimaginable that any month in the last few thousand years, maybe 100,000 years, has more PWAT in the atmosphere than August 2026. We are, as the proverb says, living in interesting times.

Why this matters: extreme rain

PWAT is one of the most important factors that controls the intensity of rainfall. In particular, we expect increases in PWAT to increase the frequency or intensity of extreme precipitation events. This has been confirmed in data. For example, Kunkel et al. (2020) concluded:

An analysis of 3,104 stations in the United States shows virtually every station exhibits a positive correlation between precipitable water (PW) and extreme daily precipitation (EP) with over one-third statistically significant.

In Trenberth et al. (2003), the authors state:

We have argued that because heavy rainfall rates greatly exceed evaporation rates and thus depend on low-level moisture convergence, then the rainfall intensity should also increase at about the same rate as the moisture increase, namely 7% per K with warming.

The IPCC AR6 report says:

In summary, precipitation extremes are controlled by both thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Warming-induced thermodynamic change results in an increase in extreme precipitation, at a rate that closely follows the C-C [Clausius–Clapeyron] relationship at the global scale (high confidence).

So the increase in PWAT is not just a weirdo statistic. It is a statement about the ceiling on the worst rain events we can face.

July 4 flooding

As an example of a real-life case, let’s consider the flooding in Texas on July 3-4, 2025. This tragic rain event caused flooding that claimed the lives of more than 130 people, including 27 campers and counselors at Camp Mystic.

The PWAT over Texas for that event was incredibly high. Here is a plot of the percentile rank of PWAT at 2 am CDT on July 4, 2025.

Percentile rank of precipitable water at 2 AM CDT on 4 July 2025, relative to all hours within ±10 days of July 4 in 1979–2025.

Most of the state has PWAT above the 95th percentile, with a large plume of moisture in the middle of the state exceeding the 99.9th percentile. Here is a histogram of PWAT for the grid point closest to Kerrville:

Distribution of precipitable water over Kerrville for all hours within ±10 days of July 4, 1979–2025. The red line marks 2 AM on 4 July 2025

PWAT over Kerrville was 55.6 mm, about 60% higher than a typical early-July value of 35 mm. Out of 23,688 late-June/early-July hours over 47 years of data, only 23 hours were moister.

It is inarguable that the high PWAT contributed to the extreme rain of this event. Given that we can connect increases in PWAT to global warming, we can confidently conclude that climate change made this rain event more intense than it otherwise would have been.

The bottom line

The atmosphere holds more water vapor than it used to because it is warmer than it used to be. August 2026 saw the highest water vapor levels in the modern record due to the extreme warmth from climate change and the El Niño. This trend is not going to stop as long as we’re dumping carbon into the atmosphere and it’s going to contribute to more and more intense rain events.

Code for the plots in this post can be found here.

1 That doesn’t sound like much, but it corresponds to about 5 trillion gallons of water.

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Josh Gabbatiss, Daisy Dunne, Molly Lempriere, Dr Simon Evans

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has emerged as a major force in UK politics in recent years – pushing anti-net-zero policies, alongside vehement opposition to immigration.

The hard-right populist party is currently mired in a funding controversy and only has a handful of MPs, yet, until recently, it had been leading in national polls for more than a year.

As seen with many similar parties across Europe and beyond, a rejection of climate science is central to Reform’s ideological outlook.

Richard Tice, the party’s deputy leader, is a vocal critic of what he calls “net stupid zero” and has incorrectly blamed “the sun or volcanoes” for human-caused global warming.

As Reform’s energy spokesperson, Tice has also been clear that, if the party were ever to form a national government, it would scrap the UK’s net-zero target, support fossil-fuel expansion and tear up existing contracts for renewable energy.

While less vocal on the subject, Farage has, nevertheless, expressed climate-sceptic views and falsely blamed net-zero policies for the “deindustrialisation of Britain”.

These views draw on long-standing, inaccurate climate-sceptic narratives and are reflected in Reform’s election manifestos, its actions in local government and the opinions of many of its supporters.

Here, Carbon Brief gathers together by topic and factchecks 45 false or misleading claims made by the party’s leadership relating to climate change, renewables and net-zero.

• Climate science

• Net-zero target

• Energy costs

• Oil and gas

• Impacts and adaptation

• Clean energy

Climate science

FALSE

Tice: “There’s no evidence that man-made CO2 is going to change climate change…The Norwegian government’s own equivalent of our ONS [Office of National Statistics] has recently produced a report along the lines of what I’m saying.”

Sky News, February 2025

The world’s authority on climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), says it is “unequivocal” that humans have warmed the planet, primarily through releasing greenhouse gases.

The IPCC says that, due to human activities, concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) “have increased at rates that have no precedent on centennial timescales in at least the past 800,000 years”.

It adds that concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are now higher than they have been for at least the past two million years.

The report that Tice is referring to is by two independent authors, with Statistics Norway clarifying in 2024 that their views are “not the official stance” of the statistics bureau. (It has also not been formally peer reviewed.)

A factcheck of the Norwegian report by a climate scientist for RealClimate describes it as “misguided” and a “distraction due to errors”.

Another factcheck published by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology found it “contains standard talking-points of climate denial”.

MISLEADING

Tice: “Look, the climate’s always changed for millions of years. And it goes through cycles, long, medium and short.”

Bloomberg, May 2026

Global temperatures are currently around 1.4C hotter than when the industrial era first began in 1850-1900, as shown in the figure below.

The IPCC says that this amount of warming is likely to have made Earth hotter than at any time in about 125,000 years.

Data from NASA GISTEMP, NOAA GlobalTemp, Hadley/UEA HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth, Copernicus ERA5, JRA-3Q, DCENT, and China-MST. Temperature records are aligned over the 1981-2010 period and use the WMO approach to calculate warming relative to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).

Scientists overwhelmingly agree that approximately 100% of this warming has been caused by humans. 

There are also natural influences that can affect Earth’s climate on shorter timescales, such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions and small variations in the output of the sun. However, scientists have found that these have only a limited effect on the underlying trend of long-term global warming.

When looking at longer timescales of millions of years or more, Earth has experienced multiple ice ages interspersed with warmer periods.

These changes in climate were triggered by variations in Earth’s orbit around the sun, in combination with subtle fluctuations in the tilt and rotation of the planet, over tens of thousands of years. However, the resulting changes to CO2 levels in the atmosphere also played a role.

This should serve as a “cautionary example”, according to Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and Carbon Brief contributor, “because human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases push the Earth further out of the range of climate conditions that have characterised the past few million years”.

FALSE

Tice: “The idea that you can stop the power of the sun or volcanoes is simply ludicrous.”

BBC Breakfast, June 2024

Scientists overwhelmingly agree that humans have caused 100% of recent climate change.

Tice’s suggestion that the sun or volcanic eruptions are behind current warming is false.

As the video below explains, the sun and volcanic eruptions have little bearing on the long-term trend of global temperature rise since the Industrial Revolution.

Click here to read the rest

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 6, 2026 thru Sat, September 12, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (10 articles)

• Satellite images of penguin droppings reveal impact of antarctic warming Penguin colonies are so large that their masses of excrement can be seen from space, offering scientists a useful means of studying the Antarctic birds. An analysis of 30 years of satellite images of penguin guano shows how the birds’ diets are shifting in response to warming. Yale Environment 360, Staff, Sep 06, 2026.
• Learning from the summers of 1976 and 2026 We have changed the climate in which our weather happens Climat Lab Book, Ed Hawkins, Sep 7, 2026.
• How climate change may amplify the impact of earthquakes in the Arctic Phys.org, Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres, Sep 07, 2026.
• America is losing its war against wildfire The opportunities to let wildfire do its job are being increasingly extinguished by hotter, drier conditions that last longer throughout the year. Grist, Mark Betancourt, Sep 08, 2026.
• Many People Aren`t Connecting the Dots Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather Scientific evidence has never been stronger. Why aren’t more people making the link? Inside Climate News, Kiley Price, Sep 08, 2026.
• Can an entire Arctic ecosystem evolve to adapt to the climate crisis? In the first project of its kind, scientists are trying to answer if the future of Alaska’s streams and tundra may depend not on survival of the fittest but on how species adapt together The Guardian, Gloria Dickie, Sep 09, 2026.
• We just had the hottest August, hottest summer, and hottest year to date in U.S. history NOAA data show unprecedented heat, as deepening drought, shrinking reservoirs, and a severe wildfire season underscore the growing impacts of a warming climate. Could El Niño bring some relief? Yale Climate Connections, Bob Henson, Sep 09, 2026.
• Major study to assess impacts of climate change on Scotland`s canals Scottish Canals is working with two globally renowned climate and heritage experts to assess the growing challenges posed by climate change to Scotland’s network of canals. The Herald News, Craig Williams, Sep 10, 2026.
• Climate `feedback loops` could worsen global warming by 30%, study finds Emissions of planet-heating methane and CO2 from natural sources are worsening the climate crisis, paper says The Guardian, Oliver Milman, Sep 10, 2026.
• Earth just had its hottest August on record The intensifying super El Niño, combined with global warming, is favored to make 2026 the hottest year on record, with 2027 expected to be even hotter. Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, Sep 10, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)

• The Worst Case Is Still on the Table Why removing RCP8.5 from the National Climate Assessment would be a serious mistake The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Sep 04, 2026.
• Climate experts respond to the government’s plan to amend the Fifth National Climate Assessment Climate.Us, Rebecca Lindsey, Sep 8, 2026.
• As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond A rift over how IPCC messages are produced and turned into policy is creating tensions in the world’s most influential coalition of climate NGOs Climate Home News, Matteo Civillini, Sep 09, 2026.
• With multilateralism in crisis, what`s next for climate philanthropy? Climate philanthropy must do more than fill the gaps left by retreating governments and find new ways to support climate action in a fragmented global landscape. Climate Home News, Megan Rowling, Sep 11, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

• This is the work of our lifetime: Ayana Elizabeth Johnson urges action after new UN climate report A United Nations report has found that the world will warm to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Climate solutions advocate Ayana Elizabeth Johnson urges a quicker implementation of known strategies - and determination rather than despair. NPR, Joel Rose, Sep 05, 2026.
• Rewetting peatlands may curb warming-driven CO? emissions Press release from the University of Münster about a new paper published in Nature Communications. Phys.org, Kathrin Kottke, Sep 10, 2026.
• How California is kicking its natural gas habit Solar and batteries matter, but they’re not the only reasons for the steep decline in gas-fired electricity. Inside Climate News, Dan Gearino, Sep 11, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (3 articles)

• Reform continues to cast doubt on climate science. Do its supporters agree? Climate scepticism is common at the Reform party conference, but many also criticise Labour for failing to protect Britons from hot weather The Guardian, Fiona Harvey, Sep 05, 2026.
• Fixing one of climate`s worst plots This is the third and last in our series discussing the use of unadjusted data and how it overstates the warmth of the 1930s over the U.S. Skeptical Science, Andrew Dessler, Sep 07, 2026.
• Factcheck: Reform UK`s 45 false or misleading claims about climate and energy Carbon Brief gathers together by topic and factchecks 45 false or misleading claims made by the ReformUK's leadership relating to climate change, renewables and net-zero. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Sep 11, 2026.

Health Aspects of Climate Change (2 article)

• Can Studying Heat Waves in Real Time Save Lives? Heat drove medical emergencies across the country last summer. Tracking those changes more quickly could help doctors prepare. Inside Climate News, Keerti Gopal, Sep 04, 2026.
• The Guardian view on extreme heat: its scale should be a wake-up call to us all | Editorial With thousands dead across Europe this summer, it’s time to recognise heatwaves as the major natural disasters they are The Guardian, Editorial, Sep 06, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• Climate Trunk - Political Economy Summary post of John Lang's Climate Trunk visuals in the "Political Economy" ring Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, Sep 09, 2026.
• Beyond the heatwave: what it really takes for climate warnings to cut through in the UK As trust in institutions wavers, experts say local, collective action is more effective in driving change The Guardian, Natalie Wint, Sep 12, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Does hosting wind turbines provide farmers with additional income? Yes - Wind projects provide farmers with substantial economic benefits while allowing most land to remain in agricultural use. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Sep 8, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• Global warming is ruining their way of life. These Colorado ranchers demand accountability A group of Colorado ranchers who are struggling with severe drought and heat have filed a friend-of-the-court brief in a climate case that soon will be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court. The ranchers say that big oil companies should be held accountable for their role in causing climate change. LA Times, Ian James, Sep 05, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (1 article)

• The Arctic Report Card Matters More Than Ever; AGU Joins Partners to Publish in 2026 The critical and highly anticipated yearly assessment will be carried forward through a partnership with CIRES/CU Boulder and the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Eos, Chris Avery and Kristen Averyt Hinton, Sep 09, 2026.

Miscellaneous (1 article)

• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2026 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 30, 2026 thru Sat, September 5, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Sep 6, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Early warning signals for tipping points in complex climate systems, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research

The growing risk of climate tipping events underscores the urgent need for reliable early warning signals (EWS). Here we synthesize recent advances in EWS research for climate systems, systematically categorizing available methods into three groups, namely statistical indicators, nonlinear dynamical diagnostics, and data-driven approaches, and evaluating their theoretical applicability to practical limitations. In conclusion, statistical indicators offer theoretical clarity but are sensitive to non-stationary noise, nonlinear dynamical methods provide enhanced robustness in high-dimensional settings, and network- and deep learning-based approaches show the potential for detecting diverse tipping types, particularly when integrated with physical constraints and multi-modal observations. Given these trade-offs, we advocate for three practical strategies to enhance EWS utility, including adopting ensemble frameworks that combine multiple indicators to reduce false alarms, advancing cascade EWS to capture cross-system tipping interactions, and shifting from qualitative trend warnings toward quantitative, threshold-defined predictions with quantifiable uncertainties. We also discuss supporting techniques for these strategies, including adaptive noise filtering, dimensionality reduction, satellite data integration, and physics-informed machine learning. This review provides a structured reference for method selection across climate subsystems and data regimes, and underscores that operational EWS will require sustained integration of nonlinear dynamics, Earth observation, and data science.

Countering climate misinformation with large language models: Evidence from ChatGPT, Tsang & Wang, PLOS Climate

Public support for climate action hinges on the integrity of information environments. In an online experiment, U.S. adults used ChatGPT to evaluate climate-related claims. We first conducted computational text analysis of GPT conversation logs, assessing valence, formality, bias, recency, authority cues, and semantic richness of ChatGPT’s responses using language-model based classifiers and link-level metadata. Concurrently, we measured credibility judgments for both the claims and ChatGPT’s responses through participant self-reports. Credibility perceptions were driven primarily by individual differences; greater acceptance of the scientific consensus, attention to climate change, prior familiarity with ChatGPT, and younger age predicted higher perceived credibility. Once these factors were accounted for, authority cues were associated with slightly less extreme climate attitudes, while positive valence and semantic richness correlated positively with perceived credibility. These results support transparent, unbiased, audience-tailored engagement as a pathway to strengthen responsible climate communication and help bridge the gap between scientific consensus and public understanding.

Lost in Projection: Uncertainty is Misrepresented in Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments, Curran et al., Risk Analysis

In practice, many climate change risk assessments fail to capture the true depth of uncertainty. Despite widespread scientific recognition of deep uncertainty (large ranges of possibility) in climate conditions, this nuance is often lost in translation to policy and planning contexts; instead, conditions are presented as single projections. This means that communities are making large-scale infrastructure investments and long-term policy commitments based on false precision, leaving them unprepared for climate surprises or potentially wasting resources and disrupting communities unnecessarily by overadapting. To examine how climate uncertainties are represented and accounted for in adaptation planning, we conducted a structured review of 39 climate risk and vulnerability assessments from across the world, using sea level rise as a case study. These documents inform policy that guides billions of dollars in infrastructure investments and shape community preparedness strategies. Our analysis reveals that only 54% of these documents correctly represent sea level rise as deeply uncertain. This issue is compounded when making decisions; 71% of decisions were made by misapplying scenarios as individual projections to plan for, rather than as a tool for exploring potential future conditions, directly contradicting their intended use. This demonstrates a gap between scientific understanding of climate uncertainty and planning practice. Addressing this gap requires improved uncertainty communication, moving beyond just quantifying uncertainty to also characterizing uncertainty. This must be done in conjunction with the support of decision makers to incorporate a stronger understanding of uncertainty into planning by using tools designed specifically for decision making in deeply uncertain environments.

From this week's government/NGO section:

How Climate Resilient Are the World’s Largest Cities?, AlphaGeo

Geography is not destiny. Cities with near-identical physical risk scores diverge by as much as 33 resilience-adjusted risk (RAJ) points depending on the adaptation measures in place — demonstrating that risk is not fixed, and that resilience is a function of policy and investment, not geography alone. South Asian megacities face a compounding crisis. Ahmedabad (RAJ 41), Hyderabad Pakistan (41), Multan (38), Dhaka (36), Kolkata (35), and Lahore (35) combine extreme physical exposure with only moderate adaptation performance. European, African, and Latin American capitals outperform. Chicago, Addis Ababa, Melbourne, Barcelona, Buenos Aires, Paris, and Nairobi all score below 14 on the RAJ scale, making them among the most resilient major cities globally. Chinese megacities are closing the gap. Beijing (50%), Tianjin (49%), Shenzhen (49%), and Shanghai (46%) lead globally on adaptation efficiency — consistently converting high physical exposure into substantially lower residual risk. Mispriced risk is concentrated in South Asia. South Asia accounts for the majority of cities where residual RAJ scores remain high and adaptation rates remain comparatively low relative to the scale of physical exposure.

Heathrow Airport expansion risks for the Climate Change Act, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester

The authors examine whether a third runway at Heathrow Airport is compatible with the UK’s domestic and international legal climate change obligations, and shows how growing airport capacity before climate technologies succeed will break the UK’s carbon budget. Through an analysis of future UK aviation scenarios and reviewing the status and outlook for key technology options, the authors findings show that Heathrow expansion cannot reasonably be considered consistent with UK Government climate targets. The authors examine three questions including the level of demand implied by an expanded Heathrow Airport; whether sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) can mitigate emissions arising from any net additional demand; and if greenhouse gas removal (GGR) expansion can address remaining additional residual emissions. This assessment is within the context of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, which is a legally binding limit on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the period when the third runway is proposed to start operating. 92 articles in 50 journals by 638 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic forcing dominates relentless westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high, An et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109301

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Transient overturning changes cause an upper-ocean nutrient decline in a warming climate, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52200-0 13 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Changes in Compound Heat-Humidity over China: Insights from Homogenized Data, DENG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.08.017

Long-term temperature, oxygen and water clarity trends in Swiss lakes, Bärenbold et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6527-2026

Recent intensification of extreme precipitation over East Antarctica driven by increases in greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, Chittella et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-5005-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Indian Ocean Acidification and Its Driving Mechanisms Over the Last Four Decades (1980–2019), Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2024gb008139 21 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Advanced Visualization Techniques for Insight in Clouds and Climate Research, Sullivan et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-25-0055.1

An AI-driven reconstruction of global surface temperature with emphasis on refining the Antarctic record, Ouyang et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-6503-2026

Early warning signals for tipping points in complex climate systems, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.002

Shallow Antarctic blue ice shows photochemical influence on trapped greenhouse gases, Lee et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03923-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is a heat wave: A survey and literature synthesis of heat wave definitions across the United States, PLOS Climate, 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000468 18 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Downscaling and Trend Projection of Lightning Associated with Forest Lightning-Ignited Fires under Climate Change, Song et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106967

Global cities under multiple climate hazards, Nogherotto et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103132

Revealing Enhanced Signals of Future Marine Heatwave Changes in the East/Japan Sea Through a High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble, Oh et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007760

The Source of Arctic Precipitation in HadGEM3-GC5, Ridley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046751

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01511-4 52 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Diagnosing CESM2 Biases in Northwest Indian Ocean Warming and Its Implications for India Summer Monsoon Precipitation, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123060

Evaluating Deep Learning Models for Streamflow Prediction Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Climate Scenarios, Piri et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106972

Global Kilometer-Scale Simulations with ARP-GEM2: Effect of Parameterized Convection and Calibration, Geoffroy & Saint-Martin, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0650.1

Spurious Drifts in the ITCZ Location and Associated Atmospheric Circulation in Decadal Climate Predictions, Mahmood et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124719

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.914 113 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Attribution of the Spread in Antarctic Sea Ice-Driven Water Mass Transformation in Coupled Climate Models, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jc024388

Glaciers of Ecuador: a review of current scientific knowledge, Avila & Campos, Earth-Science Reviews Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105680

Permafrost Degradation Drives Shifts in Chemostasis and Stream Geochemistry in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, Wright et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125327

Refreezing variability in the Greenland Ice Sheet firn zone and its response to extreme melt events, CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.08.015

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004561 73 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

An improvement to short term variability in Global Mean Sea Level reconstruction, Shaw et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-2673-2026

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Global and regional climate change impacted Paleogene mammal faunas in Central Asia, Benevento et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-77374-7

Paleogeographic controls on Phanerozoic weathering rates and implications for climate regulation, Graham et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77289-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Opposing Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability Produced by Orbital and Anthropogenic Forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109897 8 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Aggravated forest fragmentation undermines productivity spatial stability and amplifies climate impact, Huang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111455

An Integrated Oceanographic and Physiological Framework for Identifying Climate Refugia for Marine Invertebrates, Provost et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71091

Climate and Ecosystem Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Brazil, Komarov et al., Earth Interactions Open Access 10.1175/ei-d-25-0050.1

Ecosystem response of an anthropogenically impacted lagoon to induced climate-driven water stagnation: an enclosure experiment, Burini et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108393

Habitat Selection and Intrapopulation Spatial Segregation in an Arctic Top Predator at the Southern Limit of Its Range, Ross et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71024

Invertebrates at the Land-Sea Interface in a Climate Change World: Heatwaves, Floods, Fire and Ice, Byrne & Ross, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71096

Mapping the Global Habitat Redistribution of Critically Endangered Commercial Fish Species Under Climate Change, Gong et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71077

Modeling climate adaptive habitat connectivity for conservation planning in Colombia, Song et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08789

Modelling Climate-Resilient Habitats for Conservation and Restoration of Isoberlinia doka Craib and Stapf and Isoberlinia tomentosa (Harms) Craib and Stapf in Benin, Adjahossou et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70062

Nonuniform resizing of marine life under climate change, Trindade-Santos et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2606099123

Parrotfish demonstrate little behavioural shift during marine heatwaves, Golanski et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2026.0337

Phenological fluctuations induce seasonal asymmetric warming in boreal forests, Yan et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77464-6

Plant dominated ecosystem respiration of alpine meadow in permafrost region under experimental warming, Qin et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.003

Predicted Global Redistribution of Pyrophilous Beetle Melanophila acuminata (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) Under Climate Change, Wang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74317

Projected AMOC Weakening Controls Future Diatom Decline in the Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, Doléac et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007992

Virulent Parasites Emerge in Hosts With Rising Temperatures, Hector et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71082

With Knowledge Comes Responsibility: Increasing Conservation Scientists’ Impact in a Time of Global Crises, Martin et al., Conservation Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/con4.70076

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global change and premature hatching of aquatic embryos, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17488 22 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Atmospheric CH4 plateau sustained by NOx emission rise and southward shift, Zhu et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10983-w

C-PEAT’s Global Peatland Carbon Database (v.2025), Loisel et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6485-2026

Coordinated satellite, aircraft, and ground-based observations of a large transient methane release, He et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2603595123

Drivers of northern peatland CO2 fluxes revisited: interacting water level-temperature dependency, Behrens et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77456-6

Engineering carbon emissions induced by permafrost degradation and mitigation strategy: Insights from the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, LAN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.005

Enhanced carbon loss in the Southern Ocean under mitigation scenarios, Lee et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee9228

Global ecosystem carbon losses from earthquakes, He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04012-x

Greenhouse Gas and Climate Effects of Global Wetland Restoration Under Future Warming, Wagner et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008632

Significant Decline in Carbon Storage at the Edges of Mangrove Forest, Zhao et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008723

Significant Reduction in Ethane Emissions in the Denver-Julesburg Basin From 2015 to 2021 From Oil and Natural Gas Operations, Ngulat et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd044690

Temporal Amplification of Microbial Necromass Contribution to Soil Organic Carbon Under Nutrient Addition, Zhang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2026gb009455

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global riverine land-to-ocean carbon export constrained by observations and multi-model assessment, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01524-z 93 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Asymmetric Response of Land Precipitation Variability Under Carbon Dioxide Removal, Gan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd047086

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Enhancing electrochemical carbon dioxide capture with supercapacitors, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52219-3 61 cites.

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Decarbonization

Building a scalable climate coalition for heavy industry, Wolfram et al., Science 10.1126/science.aef7190

Copper supply chain decarbonization for the energy transition must maximize copper recovery, Cox et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03977-z

Toward efficient green methanol from biomass and renewable power, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77364-9

Towards a zero-waste city: carbon emissions and reduction potential from solid waste management in Wuhan, Tian et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.33465965

Utilising urban energy structure as a carbon management strategy for carbon emissions mitigation and climate neutrality, Sun & Tang, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-68670-9

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Permeability partitioning through the brittle-to-ductile transition and its implications for supercritical geothermal reservoirs, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52092-0 28 cites.

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Black carbon

Atmospheric deposition, aquatic transformation and marine carbon sequestration potential of black carbon: A critical review, Wu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108384

Increase in global warming potential of atmospheric black carbon since 1750, Shen et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02085-z

Aerosols

Direct Radiative Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosols on the Tropical Troposphere: Clouds, Precipitation, and Circulation in Convection-Resolving and Global Simulations, McGraw & Polvani, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0688.1

Potential aerosol tradeoffs of vessel speed reduction for fresh ship plume composition and tracer coverage, Shi et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01532-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Surface albedo regulates aerosol direct climate effect, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52255-z 27 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Countering climate misinformation with large language models: Evidence from ChatGPT, Tsang & Wang, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000930

Moralizing reproduction in a warming world: rethinking climate-reproductive concern beyond WEIRD contexts, Tu et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2729092

Unsupervised NLP for quantifying sentiment deviation and framing in global climate discourse, K et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1827024

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tackling the academic air travel dependency. An analysis of the (in)consistency between academics’ travel behaviour and their attitudes, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102908 27 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A biological carbon pump code of practice for high seas fisheries, Cavan et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00825-8

Collaborative learning networks on climate change adaptation practices among smallholder farmers: A case study from Central Uganda, Kekirunga et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100879

Genetically engineered crop adoption support yields and cultivation under climate change, Dong et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02737-3

Hail Risk and Cropland Exposure Changes in the United States, Bundy et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0160.1

Mapping the Global Habitat Redistribution of Critically Endangered Commercial Fish Species Under Climate Change, Gong et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71077

No significant long-term enhancement of sedimentary carbon burial by intensive Porphyra farming: Evidence from Haizhou Bay, China, Chen et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108396

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the agricultural carbon footprint in the yellow river basin, Zhou & Pan, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1793645

The OsUVR8-OsNAC3-OsERF117 signaling module mediates metabolic acclimation and climate adaptation in rice, Liu et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef5945

Transitioning From Rice-Wheat to Diversified Rice-Based Rotations Enhances Rice Production and Mitigates Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across Asia, Wang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008580

‘We always make it work’: How Swedish dairy farmers manage and prepare for an unknown future of extreme weather, Simonsson et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100881

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture, Science, 10.1126/science.adn3747 515 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Contrasting roles of climate change and land-use change on runoff dynamics in a semi-humid monsoon watershed of China, Afzal et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-67812-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100676 17 cites.

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Climate change economics
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The role of green financial sector initiatives in the low-carbon transition: A theory of change, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102915 29 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Benchmarking climate futures: the public authorization of climate pathways and its political afterlives, Park, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2729097

Crediting temporarily bound carbon reduces emissions and costs in integrated production of EU refineries, Bussmann et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03891-4

Stringent climate policies and energy poverty: Evidence of spatial spillovers and challenges for a just transition, Bai & Huaccha, Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115590

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The impact of electricity market reform on renewable energy production, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114306 35 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Applying design thinking for innovative climate adaptation solutions: Building capacity for locally led adaptation, Ziervogel et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104481

Assessing Wildfire Hazard for Powerline Expansion Under the Changing Climates in Alberta, Canada, Zong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124354

Climate vulnerability and the subnational distribution of adaptation funding, Alberola, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104488

Geospatial assessment of tropical islands vulnerability and impact under extreme cyclonic conditions, mitigation and management for climate-resilient planning, Raja et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103134

Limits and barriers to climate adaptation among Indigenous women: Insights from Vedda communities in Sri Lanka, Garbutt et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104478

Lost in Projection: Uncertainty is Misrepresented in Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments, Curran et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.70331

Ten critical questions for scaling up floating developments, MacAfee et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77492-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is limiting how we imagine climate change adaptation?, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101476 43 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Health impacts of climate change on children and adolescents: an umbrella review, Yahaya et al., BMC Public Health Open Access 10.1186/s12889-026-29270-4

Metabolic response and microbial assembly in the invader Ageratina adenophora with contrasting growth under local plant leaf and soil inoculants, Zhao et al., Plant and Soil 10.1007/s11104-026-09027-z

Mortality risks of seasonal temperature anomalies and the unrecognized risk of winter warmth: a nationwide case-time series, Ham et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-71032-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100704 24 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Climate and digital transitions in a changing global order: resource dependencies, connectivity and uneven development, Meraj et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2726446

Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate extremes are associated with crime dynamics in China, Lin et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03948-4

Community-based archaeology reinforces Indigenous cultural resilience to climate change in Alaska, Hillerdal, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03970-6

Other

Investigation of the failure mechanism and reinforcement control effect of cut slopes under climate change, Meng, Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1896698

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season despite Strong El Niño Conditions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0305.1 15 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

The Anthropocene debate, Chernilo, European Journal of Social Theory 10.1177/1368431016651874

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: State of art and scientific challenges, Advances in Climate Change Research, 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.003 75 cites.

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

2025 Electricity ATB Technologies and Data Overview, National Renewable Energy Lab

The 2025 Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides consistent, freely available, technology-specific cost and performance parameters across a range of research and development (R&D) advancement scenarios, resource characteristics, and sites for electricity-generating technologies, both at present and with projections through 2060. Two sets of financial assumptions are available: The With Tax Credits Case includes some effects of tax credits enacted as of July 2025, and the Without Tax Credits Case (shown by default in the figures) does not. The performance parameters in the Electricity ATB include Capital expenditures (CAPEX), Operations and maintenance (O&M) expenditures, and Capacity factors.

Heat Pump Rates in Rhode Island, Zuo et al., Conservation Law Foundation, Green Energy Consumers Alliance, Acadia Center, and Environmental Defense Fund

The authors analyze the electric bills of heat pump customers served by Rhode Island Energy (RIE). Under today’s rates, most gas-heated homes would pay more after switching to heat pumps. Only 21% of natural gas-heated households would save on their annual energy bills after installing a heat pump — not because heat pumps are inherently expensive to run, but because electricity bills are inflated by RIE's outdated delivery rates. The grid can handle the additional winter load. RIE should create a dedicated delivery rate class for heat pump customers that reflects what these customers actually cost the system — rather than letting default volumetric rates collect far more than the cost of serving them.

A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia's Cities, Jain et al., International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The World Bank Group

South Asia must absorb roughly 280 million new working-age people by 2050, most of them in cities, at a time when its labor markets already struggle to keep pace. Extreme heat is widening that shortfall. It already subtracts the equivalent of 31 million full-time jobs a year across the region and erodes the earnings of those who keep working. The losses concentrate in the cities where the new workforce must find employment, and they fall hardest on the households least able to absorb them. Heat reduces productivity in existing work, discourages the investment that will create new jobs, and shifts labor demand towards cooling and heat-resilient industries. Managing it has become integral to the region’s growth and jobs agenda, and governments can begin now, through institutions and budgets already in place. The authors set out how: heat and South Asia’s jobs challenge; the costs of inaction are large and growing; what needs to happen: three pillars, 15 interventions; what each decision-maker can do now; and the decade ahead.

Heathrow Airport expansion risks for the Climate Change Act, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester

The authors examine whether a third runway at Heathrow Airport is compatible with the UK’s domestic and international legal climate change obligations, and shows how growing airport capacity before climate technologies succeed will break the UK’s carbon budget. Through an analysis of future UK aviation scenarios and reviewing the status and outlook for key technology options, the authors findings show that Heathrow expansion cannot reasonably be considered consistent with UK Government climate targets. The authors examine three questions including the level of demand implied by an expanded Heathrow Airport; whether sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) can mitigate emissions arising from any net additional demand; and if greenhouse gas removal (GGR) expansion can address remaining additional residual emissions. This assessment is within the context of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, which is a legally binding limit on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the period when the third runway is proposed to start operating.

The Colorado River Water Supply Crisis in a Few Graphs: Part 2, Agricultural Water Use in the Lower Basin, Schmidt et al., Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado Law School

Reductions in Lower Basin water use during the last four years, including forecast use in 2026, are similar to the initial targets for Lower Basin shortages described in the Final Environmental Impact Statement for Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (FEIS) and the accompanying Record of Decision (ROD). Lower Basin consumptive use in 2023, 2024, and 2025, and forecast for 2026 has been the smallest for the entire 2010-2026 period. These four years of smallest use are between 1.4 and 1.7 million acre feet/year (maf/yr) less than the 7.50 maf/yr amount generally recognized as the Lower Basin’s mainstem allocation. Reductions in Lower Basin use have been achieved by large reductions implemented by Central Arizona Project (CAP) contractors and subcontractors, the Imperial Irrigation District (IID), and non-CAP water users in Arizona. The reductions in use in the IID have been in summer water use and have not affected consumptive use in winter when garden crops, such as lettuce, onions, carrots, and broccoli, are grown.

Employing Domain-Informed AI for Energy Planning and Decarbonization under Uncertainty, Obringer et al., Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University

Renewable energy is a critical part of climate change mitigation but is also more susceptible to adverse climate conditions than fossil fuel-based energy generation. The electricity grid is further stressed by growing demand and the expansion of power-intensive end-uses, e.g., data centers and EVs, whose growth trajectory already exceeds the anticipated capacity expansion needs. Current long-term planning of electric grid upgrades and expansion generally relies on historical weather and climate trends that are unlikely to remain stable in the coming decades. In the past, the complexity of large-scale climate downscaling has inhibited deeper integration of climate projections and energy planning models. Failing to integrate climate projections exposes public infrastructure to severe physical and fiscal risk. Domain-informed AI can be used as a complement to existing tools to provide forward-looking information on the effects of climate change on renewable energy integration, informing decarbonization policies. Unregulated AI data centers consume massive amounts of electricity, directly straining the grid. Policymakers should mandate that this computational infrastructure of AI operates primarily on verifiable renewable energy.

Opposition to Renewable Energy Facilities in the United States: September 2026 Edition, Romany Webb and Ivonne Norman, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

The authors document legal obstacles and challenges to renewable energy siting at the state- and local-levels in the United States. In particular, the the authors focus on: (a) state laws and local ordinances that impede the siting of utility-scale solar, wind, battery storage, and related transmission projects, referred to as “state and local restrictions”; and (b) instances of organized opposition to individual projects, referred to as “contested projects”.

Peat-Emit. Supporting developing economies to estimate and report greenhouse gas emissions from organic soils, Freeman et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Accurate estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from organic soils are essential for effective climate reporting and mitigation, yet developing countries often lack region-specific data to support reliable estimates. The authors address that gap by reviewing and synthesizing the latest available evidence on emissions from organic soils to develop updated greenhouse gas emission factors (EFs) tailored to developing economies. The authors focus on terrestrial emissions of carbon dioxide (CO?), methane (CH?), and nitrous oxide (N?O), and also evaluate emissions from tropical peatland fires, including fuel consumption and combustion completeness. Developing regions included are East and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa, where existing emission factors have been limited or insufficiently representative. Although aquatic emission pathways were reviewed, they were not updated because new robust data is still lacking. These updated factors will improve the accuracy of national greenhouse gas inventories and support countries in meeting their reporting obligations and advancing climate mitigation efforts under international frameworks.

How Climate Resilient Are the World’s Largest Cities?, AlphaGeo

Geography is not destiny. Cities with near-identical physical risk scores diverge by as much as 33 resilience-adjusted risk (RAJ) points depending on the adaptation measures in place — demonstrating that risk is not fixed, and that resilience is a function of policy and investment, not geography alone. South Asian megacities face a compounding crisis. Ahmedabad (RAJ 41), Hyderabad Pakistan (41), Multan (38), Dhaka (36), Kolkata (35), and Lahore (35) combine extreme physical exposure with only moderate adaptation performance. European, African, and Latin American capitals outperform. Chicago, Addis Ababa, Melbourne, Barcelona, Buenos Aires, Paris, and Nairobi all score below 14 on the RAJ scale, making them among the most resilient major cities globally. Chinese megacities are closing the gap. Beijing (50%), Tianjin (49%), Shenzhen (49%), and Shanghai (46%) lead globally on adaptation efficiency — consistently converting high physical exposure into substantially lower residual risk. Mispriced risk is concentrated in South Asia. South Asia accounts for the majority of cities where residual RAJ scores remain high and adaptation rates remain comparatively low relative to the scale of physical exposure.

WMO Air Quality and Climate Bulleting, World Meteorological Organization

The authors highlight the need for improved atmospheric observations of air pollutants such as fine particulate matter, and ground-level ozone, as well as aerosol like black carbon and microplastics, which are not sufficiently monitored even though they are widespread and are potentially harmful to ecosystems. They stress the importance of complementary and coordinated policies on air quality and climate because they cannot be dealt with in isolation.

Weathering Extremes: A Toolkit for Information Resilience Amid Disaster, Jennie King, Council on Strategic Risks

Extreme weather events are fueling dangerous mis- and disinformation in communities across the United States. These crises can happen anywhere, as hyper-local events are weaponized by domestic or transnational actors. The resulting chaos endangers lives and hinders local responses during a crisis, and has corrosive effects on policymaking and community resilience in the long term. It also threatens to undermine national security by disrupting critical infrastructure, empowering extremists and foreign adversaries, and paralyzing decision-making. The toolkit positions information resilience as a key element of disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. It provides a model that combines upstream efforts to build readiness and trust architecture, with frameworks to triage and counter information threats when a crisis strikes. It is designed primarily for emergency managers, resilience officers, and public information officers. In tandem, it details how a more expansive set of actors is needed to realize and embed outcomes, working across government at the state, local, and tribal levels.

Assessing overcapacity risk in India’s solar PV manufacturing market, Sharma et al., The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

India’s solar PV module manufacturing capacity reached approximately 233 gigawatts (GW) by June 2026, placing it among the world’s largest module manufacturing bases. However, this capacity is heavily concentrated in modules, at nearly 7x cell capacity and 116x ingot-wafer capacity, signaling a structural gap in upstream manufacturing. India’s module manufacturing base is operating at 35–40% utilization, well below the 50–65% level required for sustainable operations. With manufacturing capacity already exceeding domestic demand, further capacity additions risk widening the supply-demand gap in modules. Data centers, green hydrogen, and export markets could be the largest sources of incremental module demand by 2030, offering 17–22GW of annual additional opportunity beyond conventional solar deployment. Their ability to scale up will depend on supportive policy, project execution, and evolving procurement dynamics. Vertically integrated manufacturers with scale and technology depth are positioned to define the industry’s next growth phase. Small-scale assemblers, legacy Passive Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC)-based lines, and manufacturers without an upstream integration roadmap will be at risk of consolidation, acquisitions, or exit.

Built for backup, contracted to run: China’s coal support system risks crowding out clean power, Qi Qin and Christine Shearer, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

New coal power plants entering operation in China reached the highest first-half year level since 2016, with 10 GW entering operation for every 1 GW retired, despite a policy shift towards tighter control of new project approvals. China commissioned 30 GW of new coal power, up 43% from last year, while retiring only 2.7 GW. Another 25.4 GW started construction. Coal power generation rebounded 3.4% year-on-year in H1 2026, reversing the 2025 decline. The rapid expansion of coal power capacity led to worsening oversupply, reflected both in the increase of wasted wind and solar generation and in falling use of coal power plants. The rebound was not evidence of a broad return to coal following LNG shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. China’s combined domestic coal production and imports in fact fell by 1.4% year-on-year in H1 2026, rather than expanding in response to the external energy shock. Growth in clean energy supply and electrification helped offset the fall in oil supply and limit increases in fossil fuel consumption.

Challenges related to sea level rise and ways and approaches to address it : report of the Secretary-General, General Assembly of the United Nations

The authors provide an assessment of the current context of sea level rise, key challenges and ongoing efforts by Member States and the United Nations system to address such challenges. The author provide forward-looking recommendations recognizing the global multidimensional effects of sea level rise and their implications for human rights and sustainable development. The authors call for strengthened international cooperation to ensure equitable, just and sustainable solutions that uphold the rights of affected States and their populations, through international governance frameworks and action that safeguard dignity, stability and opportunities for those affected and future generations.

Hidden assets: The economic and health case for climate and clean air action, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, United Nations Environment Programme

The authors provide the most complete assessment to date of the benefits and costs of integrated climate and clean air action, complemented by an empirically grounded analysis of how these benefits can be delivered quickly enough to avoid premature deaths and disease and improve the lives of many of the world’s most vulnerable people.

EV Transition Check 2026: Measuring progress toward zero emissions for road transport in Europe, Marie Rajon Bernard and Alexander Plummer, International Council on Clean Transportation

The authors assess the progress of Europe’s road transport toward zero emissions. This second edition widens the scope to include trucks and buses in addition to passenger cars. The authors provide a broad range of data and analysis for a comprehensive snapshot of the current status of the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEV). In terms of the affordability and accessibility of BEVs, the number of passenger car BEV models on offer in Europe’s largest automotive market, Germany, has quadrupled between 2020 and 2025 to about 160, and affordable options, defined as BEVs priced below €30,000, have grown to about 35. BEVs in the three largest car segments (medium, upper-medium, and luxury) have already reached upfront cost parity with comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Although the median BEV sales price has increased in recent years, so has the electric range by approximately 30% on average in the past 5 years. Factoring in improvements in performance as well as inflation, BEV prices have decreased by about 18% over the past 5 years, spurred primarily by a decrease in global battery prices, which, adjusted for inflation, have fallen by about 35% in the past 5 years. The delta between battery cost reductions and BEV sale prices indicates further potential for BEV price reductions in the upcoming years. About New Research

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Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Does hosting wind turbines provide farmers with additional income?

Wind projects provide farmers with substantial economic benefits while allowing most land to remain in agricultural use.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates about 98% of land within a typical wind project remains available for farming, grazing, or other uses.

Meanwhile, farmers who host turbines can receive long-term lease payments that provide additional income and financial stability. One study found that farmers with turbines invested about twice as much in their farms, while 80% had plans for who would take over or inherit the farm, compared with 62% of farmers without turbines.

Compared with the small amount of farmland used by turbines, unmitigated climate change poses broader risks to agriculture through heat, drought, shifting pests, and reduced crop yields.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

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Sources

NREL Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035

Handbook of Sustainability and Social Science Research Wind Energy and Rural Community Sustainability

Center for Rural Affairs Navigating Land Leases for Wind and Solar

IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land: Chapter 5

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

This is the third and last in our series discussing the use of unadjusted data and how it overstates the warmth of the 1930s over the U.S. See part one and part two for more.

A hall of fame for bad climate plots would definitely include this one:

The plot covers the continental U.S., and it dramatically shows that temperatures in the 1930s were more extreme than those of the present period. The metric plotted, the heat wave index, is constructed as a station?average count of qualifying 4?day warm spells (mean temperature exceeds a local one?in?ten?year threshold) in each year, so higher values mean that heat waves were more frequent in that year.

It was originally published in 1999 and has gone through several iterations, with the one above from an EPA website in 2021.

Don’t take this as criticism of the original paper — it was published in 1999, after all. However, the plot has hung around long past its expiration date and has since become a staple of climate denial. I think it’s time to reconsider what the plot actually tells us.

But is it right?

After reading our previous posts on the heat of the 1930s, you probably already know the answer: this plot is wrong in important ways.

The plot above is constructed from raw, unadjusted station data, which contain significant biases both in the individual station records and in the geographic distribution of the stations.

As we discussed in our previous posts, we can adjust for those biases. Here are the plots with biases removed:

In these plots, I’m using the adjusted and area-weighted GHCN-daily data (described in this post) and the daily Berkeley Earth land data (used in this post).

Both plots show something different than the raw, unadjusted data. The GHCN-daily data show that the most extreme years were 1936, 2023, 1934, 1931, and 2011. In the Berkeley Earth dataset, the most extreme years were 2023, 2011, 1936, 2020, and 1931.

Thus, once you account for biases in the data, you cannot conclude that temperatures during the 1930s over the continental U.S. were more extreme than those of recent years.

Rather, the only fair conclusion is that the last few years have been about as extreme as the hottest years of the 1930s over the continental U.S.

The 1930s were hot, but not because of global warming

Despite this ambiguous answer, we can still learn something from the plot.

First, as we’ve pointed out many times, the heat of the 1930s was regional — it was concentrated in the middle of the U.S. That’s different from today, when extreme temperatures are a global phenomenon.

We understand why this small part of the U.S. was so hot in the 1930s. It was normal climate variability combined with human activities. The relevant human activity was not fossil-fuel combustion but bad farming practices that contributed to the Dust Bowl.

During the early 20th century, aggressive plowing and the replacement of native grasses left Great Plains soils exposed. When drought conditions developed, those degraded soils dried out quickly, reducing evaporation and soil moisture and reinforcing the heat.

This feedback between drought and land degradation amplified temperatures over the U.S. Midwest and helped create the extraordinary heat of the Dust Bowl era seen in the plots above.

A picture is worth 1,000 words, so here’s what Dalhart, Texas looked like in 1938:

Abandoned farm with windmill and farm equipment. Dalhart, Texas. June 1938. Credits: Dorothea Lange; The Library of Congress, Prints & Photographs Division. Source.

Here’s what Dalhart, Texas looks like today from space:

Dalhart, Texas in 2016. Google Earth.

Those circles are the signature of center-pivot irrigation. Irrigation cools the surface, and the expansion of agriculture and irrigation in the central U.S. in the middle of the 20th century played a key role in why heatwaves were low in the middle of the 20th century:

the corrected figure: same data as plotted above, but smoothed with a 10-year centered average

Starting in the 1970s, we see heatwaves trending upward. Unlike the heat of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s, this post-1970 increase is global. This is climate change making heatwaves more extreme.

Conclusions

1. The extreme heat of the 1930s covered a very small part of the planet, the U.S. Midwest. Focusing on just that region is a classic case of cherry-picking.

2. The heat of the 1930s was due to human activity in the form of bad agricultural practices combined with natural variability.

3. Since the 1970s, heatwaves have become more frequent. This differs from the Dust Bowl because it is a global signal, occurring essentially everywhere. This is almost certainly due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.

Thus, if you see someone trying to downplay today’s extreme heat by claiming that ‘the 1930s were hotter,’ it’s a scam. Tag it with #1930sScam, hit the share button below, and share the link and the corrected figure.Code to reproduce the figures is here.

Other stuff

My colleague, Prof. Adam Sobel, has a nice post on his substack Deep Convection about km-scale modeling and the state of U.S. climate modeling. You should read it.

 

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 30, 2026 thru Sat, September 5, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (6 articles)

• When a mountain falls: How ice and rock triggered Nepal`s catastrophic flood - and why climate change is raising the risks The Conversation, Umesh Haritashya, Aug 29, 2026.
• Climate crisis pushes French winemakers to bet on warmer future in Brittany and Normandy An important part of the French economy is chased north by climate change but successful adapatation is not a certainty. France 24, France 24 staff, Aug 31, 2026.
• Coral Reefs Are Running Out of Time to Recover, Research Finds Rising sea temperatures mean reefs don’t have enough time to bounce back between intense heat waves, a new report warns. New York Times, Quinn Glabicki, Aug 31, 2026.
• Nepal`s glacial collapse foreshadowed a future of climate disaster | Michael Mann The deluge capped a summer of extreme climate events, from deadly heatwaves to wildfires. We must take action now The Guardian, Michael Mann, Sep 01, 2026.
• UN finally admits global warming will shoot past 1.5 ºC climate limit According to a report released today by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the best the planet can hope for on its current emissions trajectory is warming of about 1.8 ºC above pre-industrial levels this century. Nature, James Dinneen, Sept 2 2026.
• Canadians should prepare for a 5 C hotter future, report warns The second edition of Canada's Changing Climate Report, a synthesis of the science on the impact of a warming planet on Canadians, confirms with greater confidence that burning fossil fuels, or what the report calls "human activities," are responsible for climate change. CBC Canada News, David Thurton, Sep 04, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (6 articles)

• How the greenhouse effect was discovered A video about the first paper detailing the greenhouse effect and examining the role of varying levels of carbon dioxide was released back in 1896. Youtube, Simon Clark, Aug 29, 2026.
• As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos Phys.org, Seth Borenstein, Aug 30, 2026.
• Forests didn't fare well during an ancient global warming event, offering a 'cautionary' tale about today's climate change Smithsonian Magazine, Sarah Hashemi, Aug 30, 2026.
• Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios - and how they explore future climate change Every six to seven years, climate modelling groups around the world run a coordinated set of simulations that explore how the climate could change in the future. Carbon Brief, Zeke Hausfather, Aug 31, 2026.
• EXPERT REACTION: Quick action needed as the world is set to get hotter than we hoped Rapid expert reaction to the UN's belated acknowledgement of committed overshoot of the previously agreed acceptable 1.5°C global warming threshold. Australian Science Media (scimex), Australian Science Media Centre staff, Sept 2, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2026 Highlighted articles in our latest weekly climate research scan focus on various forms of reality-denial, purposefully for profit or as unconscious obedience to political ideology. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Sep 03, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (4 articles)

• Rebutting 38 False Claims About Solar, Wind, Electric Vehicles, and Battery Storage In this report, the Sabin Center identifies and examines 38 of the most pervasive false claims about solar energy, wind energy, and electric vehicles, with the aim of promoting a more informed discussion about energy modernization Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Andrew Kieffer, Sep 02, 2026.
• Energy In, Motion Out EVs waste miles less energy than their fossil-fuelled counterparts. Climate Trunk, John Lang, Sep 02, 2026.
• How to respond to disinformation about clean energy, at scale David Roberts interviews Leah Qusba about scalable methods for leveling the playing field when countering organized energy modernization disinformation campaigns. Volts, David Roberts, Sep 02, 2026.
• Widespread Local Opposition, Often Driven by Misinformation, Continues to Hamper Renewable Energy Development Opposition frequently stems from, and/or is heightened by, mis- and dis-information about renewable energy development which is often spread by the fossil fuel industry and its supporters. Climate Law Blog, Ivonne Norman, Andrew Kieffer and Romany Webb, Sep 03, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (3 articles)

• The Earth is sizzling, but climate isn't a hot topic for Democrats in this year's campaigns Climate change has become a less prominent election-year issue for Democrats as voters say concerns such as affordability are more pressing ABC News, Nicholas Riccardi, Jennifer McDermott, Leah Willinghanm, Aug 29, 2026.
• Inside the passage of America`s biggest climate law In a new memoir, author Leah Stokes takes readers behind the scenes of U.S. democracy – and shows how people can still have an outsize impact by working together. Yale Climate Connections, Michael Svoboda, Sep 02, 2026.
• Who decides what climate change caused? Critical analysis of climate change attribution in press coverage of disasters finds generally good results, advises guarding credibility without underplaying the role climate change is playing in amplifying havoc. Atmos, Miranda Green, Sep 03, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• Vycarb Successfully Stores Low-Purity CO2 In Seawater Some fairly easy chemistry not only can handle impurecombustion gas streams but also offers a side-benefit for at least somewhat offsetting ocean acidification. CleanTechnica, Larry Evans, Aug 29, 2026.
• Guest post: Why tough methane cuts are crucial for keeping warming `well-below` 2C A new study highlights that, to limit peak warming to well-below 2C, net-zero CO2 targets must be complemented by stringent methane emissions cuts. Carbon Brief, Konstantin Weber, Prof Reto Knutti, Dr Cyril Brunner, Sep 01, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (2 articles)

• Koonin`s Temperature of the LOL Stratosphere Longest-running climate blog does a forensic deconstruction of a ''climate skeptic'' claim, presented as part of the US Department of Energy's ''Climate Working Group'' misinformation workshopping. RealClimate, RealClimate Group, Aug 31, 2026.
• How climate denialism finds its way to the US 's highest office The Guardian on Youtube, Dharna Noor, Sep 3, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (2 articles)

• Heathrow expansion would make UK `overshoot` climate targets, report suggests New modelling says UK aviation industry is already forecast to exceed limits in the seventh carbon budget, even before third runway is built The Standard News, Tom Place, Sep 02, 2026.
• Oil lobby tanking climate Superfund bills in Oregon, 11 states despite public support, study finds Brown University researchers found that a small amount of testimony from fossil fuel lobbyists opposing polluter pay laws has had greater power than massive public support. Oregon Capital Chronicle, Alex Baumhart, Sept 3, 2026.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #35 A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 23, 2026 thru Sat, August 29, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Aug 30, 2026.
• Readers reply: If all car tyres were filled with CO2, would this cut atmospheric carbon significantly? Newspaper readers answer an intriguing question; one reader goes through the numbers quantifying correct intuition. The Guardian, Guardian Staff, Aug 31, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• Science, Attribution Studies, & Identifying Climate Criminals CleanTechnica, Steve Hanley, Aug 31, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report, Santer et al., Earth s Future

A July 2025 report from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) made the key claim that the stratosphere has warmed since 2000, contrary to model projections and inconsistent with the expected anthropogenic fingerprint. The DOE report provided no references or data to support this claim. Its basis appears to be an unpublished figure comparing simulated and observed tropical trends in the temperature of the lower stratosphere (TLS), a layer extending from roughly 15 to 20 km above Earth's surface. The observed tropical TLS trends shown in the unpublished DOE figure are incorrect. When the correct observational data sets are used, model tropical TLS trends are consistent with satellite observations, and a model-predicted anthropogenic fingerprint is identifiable with high confidence in observed latitude-altitude profiles of tropical temperature change. An earlier rebuttal of the DOE “no human fingerprint” claim considered global-mean temperature changes only and did not perform a pattern-based fingerprint study. Unless corrected or retracted, the DOE report will continue to misinform policymakers and the public about the reality of human effects on climate.

Climate disinformation and moral distortion, Hopster & Martini, Environmental Politics

Disinformation is commonly understood as the distortion, omission or framing of facts, in the interest of deceiving. But does disinformation merely stem from an untruthful representation of facts, or can it also involve a distortion of morals? This question is not easily answered: while factual information can be untruthfully represented, it is less straightforward what ‘moral distortion’ might involve. In this paper we investigate the nature of moral distortion, by scrutinizing two case-studies from climate discourse. We argue that moral distortion involves the selective representation of morally relevant facts, which leaves an audience with a biased appreciation of an issue, even though the sender of information positions themselves as a trustworthy partner in public inquiry. We clarify how moral distortion relates to ‘moral corruption’, ‘greenwashing’, and other types of environmental disinformation, and address the objection that the cultural relativity of moral claims shields them from criticism.

[Comment] The imperative to counter fossil fuel industry disinformation for public health, Narayan et al., The Lancet Planetary Health

Despite claims of being climate solution leaders, fossil fuel companies continue to spend billions on lobbying and disinformation to delay meaningful climate action. The medical and public health community is uniquely positioned at the forefront of the battle against fossil fuel disinformation, and their role has never been more crucial. As some of the most trusted voices in society, health professionals hold a powerful influence over public opinion and policy, making them essential advocates for truth and health. However, the growing tide of fossil fuel industry disinformation, aimed at confusing the public, deflecting responsibility, and delaying action, threatens to erode the foundation of this trust and the ability of the health community to advocate on climate-related health threats. Therefore, it is imperative for health professionals to take a proactive, united stand in countering this influence.

When beliefs meet technology: conservatism, climate denialism, and support for solar geoengineering, Lee et al., Environmental Politics

Solar geoengineering is an object of deep political contestation. Public responses to solar geoengineering technologies cannot be as easily explained by political ideology alone. Hypothesizing that climate denialism mediates ideology’s influence on public support for solar geoengineering, we ask: (1) What is the relationship between political conservatism and support for solar geoengineering, and does it differ by country and technology? (2) Is this relationship mediated by climate denialism? We answer these questions using mediation analyses of public attitudes toward three climate intervention technologies across thirteen countries. Our findings show that conservatives are generally less supportive of solar geoengineering, and this opposition is largely rooted in climate denialism with variation across technologies. Once denialism is controlled for, conservatism is associated with greater support for certain technologies in some countries but not others. Therefore, the relationship between conservatism and climate intervention support does not reflect a single, stable ideological association.

 From this week's government/NGO section:

Summary Report: Second Conference on Attribution Science and Climate Law, Jessica Wentz, Columbia Law School, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law

A summary report for the Second Conference on Attribution Science and Climate Law, held at Columbia University on June 10–11, 2026. The event brought together physical scientists, legal scholars, public health researchers, economists, and policy experts to discuss key developments in climate change attribution science and its evolving role in climate law and governance. The author provides an overview of key themes and topics covered at the conference, as well as a detailed summary of the presentations and panel discussions. Video recordings of the event can also be accessed from the event website and the Sabin Center Youtube channel. Rapid advances in attribution research—including storyline approaches, integrated impact modeling, and end-to-end attribution—are strengthening the scientific foundation for linking GHG emissions, climate change, and specific harms. Panelists highlighted the utility of these methods not only as evidentiary support in climate litigation and corporate accountability claims, but also as vital tools for informing government decision-making, adaptation planning, disaster risk reduction, and international loss and damage frameworks. Discussions also confronted ongoing challenges, including political pressures on climate science, the necessity of clear communication regarding scientific uncertainties, and the importance of addressing structural inequalities alongside physical hazards.

Climate Double Agents: The Congressional lobbyists pushing fossil fuels and solutions to the climate crisis, F Minus

The authors reviewed Congressional lobbyist disclosures of 228 lobbying firms. They found fossil fuel lobbyists simultaneously lobbying on almost every aspect of the climate crisis, from climate mitigation to disaster relief to wildlife conservation. The most conflicted firm on the issue of climate mitigation funding for local governments was Greenberg Traurig, which lobbied for the American Petroleum Institute (API) and ConocoPhillips in Congress, the Western States Petroleum Association in California, and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufactures (AFPM) in New York, all of which have opposed the creation of climate superfunds. Greenberg Traurig also lobbied on shoreline protection and Everglades restoration for Miami-Dade County and lobbied for the City of Rochester and Westchester County in New York, both of which would lose tens of millions in future climate mitigation funds if the firm’s clients API and AFPM succeed in passing a Congressional bill invalidating state Climate Superfunds, including New York’s. 156 articles in 71 journals by 1074 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Centennial AMOC Variability of North Atlantic–Arctic Origin: Mechanism and Future State, Yang, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70480

Climate extremes drive increased fire nitrogen release in boreal forest, Liu et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122330

Detectability of Forced ENSO Changes Under Global Warming: Insights From the Recharge Oscillator, Han et al., arXiv (Cornell University) Open Access 10.48550/arxiv.2608.26767

Global warming enhances salinity gradient energy potential through hydroclimatic change, Xu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04010-z

Hydrographic variability associated with enhanced warming in the eastern Antarctic region during the austral summer, Krishnan et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101390

Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space, Weber et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03832-1

Maritime Continent freshening intensifies the observed La Niña-like warming, Cao et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01523-4

Sea surface warming suppresses primary sea spray aerosol number production, Leibensperger et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-12211-2026

When the Mountains Stop Warming the Plains: Anomalous Winter and Spring Cooling in Southeastern Alberta Linked to Reduced Chinook Activity, Yackel et al., ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN 10.1080/07055900.2026.2716651

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01510-5 14 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice properties and processes, Webster et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00816-9

Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation, Streletskiy et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03824-1

Marine Heatwave Trends in Eastern North America Waters Using a High-Resolution (5-km) SST Dataset, Stone & Milrad, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70474

Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report, Santer et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008831

Narwhals document atlantification of East Greenland, Heide-Jørgensen et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adr1424

Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling intensifies wildfires in Siberia in 2021, Xiao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111437

Trends in Heat Stress During Heat Waves Across Europe (1979–2023), Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124082

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Rock glaciers across the United States predominantly accelerate coincident with rise in air temperatures, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52093-z 29 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

CSRFormer: An Instantaneous Global-ocean Clear-sky Radiative Flux Dataset Derived From CERES, Zheng et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20046058

ERA5 Can Overstate Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Heat: A New Zealand Case Study, Iqbal et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70571

Heatstroke mortality in a warming climate: From physiological risk to reporting practices in a multi-country study, Tob??as et al., Temperature 10.1080/23328940.2026.2698161

Investigating Climate Change Impacts on the 2020 Extreme Meiyu Through Global Variable-Resolution Ensemble Subseasonal Hindcasts, Xu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045982

Six-fold reduction in ocean heat content estimate uncertainty since 1960, Cheng et al., Research Square Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9248956/v1

Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation over the Last Millennium Reconstructed from Proxies, Stiller & Hakim, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0568.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Coordinated Geostationary, Multispectral Satellite Observations Are Critical for Climate and Air Quality Progress, AGU Advances, 10.1029/2024av001322 9 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Heatwaves in a 15 °C World: Exploring remote drivers’ influence on Northern Italy with a storyline-based approach, Squintu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100949

Projections of Climate-Driven Changes in Fire Regimes and Implications for Boreal Landscapes in Alaska and Northwest Canada, Littell et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008324

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2023ef003959 30 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Assessing the Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Biases in CMIP6 Coupled Models on the North Pacific Westerly Jet, Ushijima et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.19705804

Causes of the Delayed Seasonality of Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Models, Jiawei, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31224409

ClimAVA-SWE: A High-Resolution CMIP6-Based Snow Water Equivalent Dataset for the Western United States, Sajad et al., Harvard Dataverse Open Access 10.7910/dvn/scd2vt

Compound Climate Events and Cascading Impacts in the IPCC AR6: Analysis of Gaps and Avenues for the AR7, Duvat, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70046

DeepMelt-GL v1: a neural network emulator of sub-shelf melt rates for the unrepresented regions of ice-shelf cavities in ocean models, Ockenden et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-7979-2026

Dominant Biases in Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rates in Global Climate Models, Huang & Huang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122611

Excessive Negative Surface Heat Flux Feedback in CMIP6 Models, George et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024124

Forest canopy decline under elevated CO2 during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Dunn et al., DRYAD Open Access 10.5061/dryad.wdbrv164q

IAM-FIRE: A Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models, Rouhette et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70951

Improving simulation of Earth system variability through weakly coupled ocean data assimilation in E3SM, Shi et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-8003-2026

Three Generations of NARCliM: Evaluation of Precipitation, Temperature and Their Extremes Over the CORDEX Australasia Domain, Ji et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70353

Urban climate evaluation in the upcoming generation of CMIP6-Driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations, Díez-Sierra et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103103

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
On the Realism of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Global Storm-Resolving Climate Models, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109841 21 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

A 1 km resolution dataset of Northern Hemisphere permafrost active layer thickness (2000–2024), Wei & Chen, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20602924

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice properties and processes, Webster et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00816-9

Earlier lake ice breakup in response to warming in the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago, Russian High Arctic: Evidence from MODIS data (2000-2024), Maraldo et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101365

Emergent Regimes of River Meandering and Permafrost Extent in Arctic Floodplains, Lamb et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124384

Global database of glacier failures (1900–2025), Ekaterina & Summer, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.19477908

Long-term change of the ice phenology in Saroma-ko Lagoon, Hokkaido, Japan, Shiomoto et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101388

Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation, Streletskiy et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03824-1

Meltwater movement and refreezing in the wet snow zone of Qaanaaq Ice Cap, northwest Greenland, Minowa et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101395

On the non-linear response of Antarctic ice shelf surface melt to warming, Hofsteenge et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-4747-2026

Thermodynamic Control of Global Seasonal Snow Decline, Song et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122806

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Toward long-term monitoring of regional permafrost thaw with satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar, cryosphere, 10.5194/tc-18-3723-2024 7 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Human-induced subsidence exceeds sea-level rise in driving future coastal flood exposure in China’s Greater Bay Area, Wang et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20603078

Sea-level rise projections tailored for spatial adaptation planning in the U.S., Konfirst et al., Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-026-06669-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Simulated Impact of Time-Varying River Runoff and Greenland Freshwater Discharge on Sea Level Variability in the Beaufort Gyre Over 2005–2018, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 10.1029/2024jc021237 6 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Forest canopy decline under elevated CO2 during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Dunn et al., DRYAD Open Access 10.5061/dryad.wdbrv164q

Modern anthropogenic subsidence rivals deglacial meltwater pulse rates in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, Qin et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03889-y

Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord, Cole et al., Science 10.1126/science.ady2660

Upcoming climate change: fossil record as a key to predict future biotic response, B?k & B?k, Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1950918

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Eocene maar sediments record warming of up to 3.5 °C during a hyperthermal event 47.2 million years ago, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01628-9 4 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Arboreal Mammals Are at Risk Under Climate Change: Insights From a Global Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis, Silva et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71034

Blind Spots in Traditional Approaches to Conservation Prioritization in a Climate Change Context, Bondi et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.70259

Climate Warming Drives the Breakdown of Plant–Pollinator Mutualisms Despite Phenological Synchrony, Manincor et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71074

Climate-driven mobilization of rare earth elements and metals in Antarctica: Pathways, ecological exposure, and implications for trophic transfer, Khamis et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101394

Coral Reef In Situ Product (CRISP): a global compilation of coral reef temperature time series, Larson et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.21045962

Declines in European bumblebee habitat suitability attributable to climate change, Tandt et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02734-6

Declining hydraulic safety in a drier world, Liang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2622754123

Direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2, warming and drought on plant–consumer interactions of Plantago lanceolata, Davidova et al., DRYAD Open Access 10.5061/dryad.r2280gbv1

Ensemble Modeling of Shifts in the Suitable Distribution and Ecological Niche of the Alpine Tibetan Medicinal Herb Corydalis hendersonii Hemsl. Under Climate Change and Human Activity, Wu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73861

Future Climate Change and Bioclimatic Suitability of Two Endemic Balkan Water Frogs, Papežík et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.70246

Global spatial heterogeneity of changes in vegetation resistance to compound drought and heat events during 2001–2020, HAN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.08.016

Increased Atmospheric CO2 Adversely Affects Large Pollinators, but Benefits Small Pollinators, Khan et al., DRYAD Open Access 10.5061/dryad.m37pvmdgh

Intensifying Flash Droughts Aggravate Vegetation Ecosystem Vulnerability in the Monsoon Region of China: Evidence From Resistance and Resilience Responses, Qi et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006987

Large fisheries declines linked to compound and extreme climate events, Cheung et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-77077-z

Long-Term Evolution Under Heatwave Conditions in the Seed Beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, Ivimey-Cook et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73562

Narwhals document atlantification of East Greenland, Heide-Jørgensen et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adr1424

Projecting future habitat suitability and range dynamics of Spermophilus dauricus on the Mongolian Plateau under climate change, Wang et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2026.1921190

Reply to: Antarctic greening is constrained by biology and requires field validation, Roland et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02080-4

Reply to: Estimated tree longevity response to climate at risk of methodological bias, Gao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03935-9

Saturation effect of background temperature and aridity on vegetation phenological sensitivity to urban warming, Zhang et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-5943-2026

Saturation effect of background temperature and aridity on vegetation phenological sensitivity to urban warming, Zhang et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-5943-2026

Space Use Change Associated With Climate Induces Camouflage Mismatch to Increase Extinction Risk in an Endangered Mammal, Mahoney et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71079

The Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Seven Meconopsis Species in China: A MaxEnt Model-Based Predictive Analysis, Yang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73824

The Potential Habitat of Liparis campylostalix (Orchidaceae) in China Under Climate Change Scenario Predicted by MaxEnt Model, Deng et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73536

Thermal Stress and Habitat Loss: Assessing the Vulnerability of Potamon fluviatile (Decapoda: Potamidae) to Climate Change in Italy, Sorboni et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.74256

Warming Reduces Cold Hardiness of Boreal Plants but Damage Risk Varies by Species and Season, Campos-Arguedas et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71081

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global increase in the optimal temperature for the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01636-9 35 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Step Forward to Global Segment CO2 Flux Estimation Benefiting from Large Swath of Coordinated CO2 and Solar-Induced Fluorescence Measurements from the TanSat-2 Mission, Yang et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s00376-026-6150-1

Blue carbon functional collapse precedes physical marsh retreat, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03971-5

Correction for Zhou et al., Warming substantially amplifies Antarctic coastal polynyas as key carbon sinks, [authors did not process], Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2627297123

Divergent Trends in the Seasonal Amplitude of Atmospheric CO2 Across the Globe, Linyang & Jiawen, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.17810400

Estimation of forest carbon storage with small samples based on Bayesian hierarchical model, Fan et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1909517

Exploring atmospheric CH4 monitoring network expansion in Italy using inverse modelling, Mil et al., ICOS Carbon Portal Open Access 10.18160/tgmj-4ygj

Global methane emission estimates from a dual-isotope inversion: new constraints from δD-CH4, Dasgupta et al., Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) Open Access pmh:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/486815

Global peatlands formed via paludification since the Last Glacial Maximum are more conducive to absorbing CO2, Gao et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105692

Hydropower reservoirs will lead energy-sector carbon emissions by 2050 under a net-zero scenario, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03982-2

Impact of land use on carbon dynamics in cold-temperate rivers: A case study of the Ussuri (Wusuli) River basin, Northeast China, Zhang et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100575

Increased maximum carbon release offsets half of the growth trend in annual land carbon sink, Bai et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-77462-8

Multidimensional inequalities in attributed passenger-transport CO2 across 21 EU member States in 2015, Álvarez-Antelo et al., Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115582

Polar and subpolar shelf seas dominate enhanced coastal CO2 uptake during marine heatwaves, Hu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77165-0

Radiocarbon in atmospheric CH4 and CO2 at Jungfraujoch in 2019–2024: influence of regional nuclear emissions and current global atmospheric 14CH4 signal, Laemmel et al., Open Access CRIS of the University of Bern Open Access 10.48620/100501

Soil disturbance in wetlands by feral pigs increases greenhouse gas emissions, Adame et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-5781-2026

Synergistic effects of warming and elevated CO2 intensify drought impacts on grassland carbon and water fluxes, Tissink et al., MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) Open Access pdf pmh:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3716274

Synergistic Interactions Between Warming and Elevated Atmospheric CO2 Increase Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration, Yao, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31563121

Temporal lag in post-mining regrowth amplifies carbon loss in tropical forests during the period 2000–2023, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77252-2

The EDGAR-LULUCF Dataset of forest-related carbon emissions and removals, Rossi et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20381555

Three-Fourths of Carbon Emissions From 2023 Record-Breaking Wildfires in Canada Traced to Soil and Peat Combustion, Zhong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123393

Trophic regulation constrains ecosystem carbon accumulation under global change, Xu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2610728123

Using Tower-Based Observational Networks to Assess the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Six North American Cities, Barkley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045115

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Reducing the uncertainty in estimating soil microbial-derived carbon storage, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2401916121 157 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Assessment of formation brine salinity, pressure and temperature in selected structures in eastern Denmark and implications for CO2 storage, Schovsbo et al., GEUS Bulletin Open Access 10.34194/62417j08

Industrializing reactive capture of CO2, Xiao et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02113-7

Near-term, geospatial opportunity for biomass carbon storage to address the wildfire and climate crises, Clayton et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee6185

Seismic investigations of eight geological structures for potential storage of CO2 in Denmark: an introduction, Gregersen et al., GEUS Bulletin Open Access 10.34194/299dt488

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-51226-8 64 cites.

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Decarbonization

Regional retrofit, net-zero aspirations, and their whole-life carbon burden, Zune et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae9984

Sustainable polar shipping under climate change: A bibliometric review of emissions and efficiency, Tuti, Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101392

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Pathway decisions for reuse and recycling of retired lithium-ion batteries considering economic and environmental functions, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52030-0 224 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Wind-Driven Circulation Feedbacks Offset Tropical Geoengineered Sea Salt Emissions, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2026jd047411

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Africa's Climate Response to Marine Cloud Brightening Strategies Is Highly Sensitive to Deployment Region, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd041070 6 cites.

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Black carbon
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The politics of knowledge in black carbon mitigation: Policy entrepreneurship of Finnish actors and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103881 3 cites.

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Aerosols

Instantaneous radiative forcings due to the first indirect effect linked to low-level liquid clouds in the Amazon, Pugliesi et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-12151-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
On the sensitivity of aerosol–cloud interactions to changes in sea surface temperature in radiative–convective equilibrium, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-9323-2024 2 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

A systematic review and meta-analysis of communication strategies to promote climate action, Uenal et al., OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) pmh:oai:share.osf.io:acc66f76-7427-4f8d-ae9b-f0597aaf12dd

Aiding or shaming in climate politics: Evidence from a survey experiment in Brazil, Calacino, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104919

Climate disinformation and moral distortion, Hopster & Martini, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2721054

Comparing threat- and solution-oriented climate communication: The role of hope, self-efficacy, and climate anxiety in motivating high-impact climate-friendly behavior, Ringhofer et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103194

In Sickness and in Heat – A Content Analysis of German Media Coverage of Chronic Diseases and Climate-Related Weather Events, Singh & Metag, Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2026.2723748

Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report, Santer et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008831

Stereotypes Shape Public Impressions of Unconventional Climate Advocates Across Urban and Regional Communities, Wang et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2026.2723751

When beliefs meet technology: conservatism, climate denialism, and support for solar geoengineering, Lee et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2721030

[Comment] The imperative to counter fossil fuel industry disinformation for public health, Narayan et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101435

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
For cash, the planet, or for both: Evaluating an informational intervention for energy consumption reduction, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114314 6 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change and food security in sustainable finance: a South African perspective, Zenda, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1926592

Compound Hot-Dry Days (CHDDs) and Their Implications on Maize Yields in the Free State Province, South Africa, Moeletsi & Tsubo, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70281

Dam Regulation Moderates Climate-Induced Rice Yield Loss in the Mekong-Tonle Sap Lake System, Zhang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef008053

Evaluating Crop Yield Sensitivity to Climate Change Using a Deep-Learning Framework Incorporating Vegetation and Groundwater Memory, Baluch et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008560

Fostering the forest circular bioeconomy to combat climate change by producing biochar from conifer and broadleaf stands, Mosquera-Losada et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1821315

From soft limits to hard thresholds: mapping the adaptation gap in sub-Saharan African agriculture – a systematic review, Madanzi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1807595

Grazing Enhances System Carbon Balance via the Soil-Plant-Livestock Carbon Pump Regulation Despite Suppressing Specific Carbon Cycling Pathways, Zhou et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008382

Heterogeneous persistent ENSO impact on China’s agricultural economy in a warming climate, Wang, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18168708

Irrigation Impact on Humid Heat Stress: Divergent Metrics, Vegetation Dynamics, and Future Worsening, Shen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123720

Making climate governance actionable: a corpus-based analysis of institutionalizing climate change in tuna fisheries governance, He et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-026-00240-y

Research priorities for climate adaptation and resilience in smallholder livestock systems in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review, Slayi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1924189

Retraction Note: An autocatalytic multicomponent DNAzyme nanomachine for tumor-specific photothermal therapy sensitization in pancreatic cancer, Yan et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75939-0

Straw mulching mitigates warming-induced yield loss and leverages elevated CO2 to improve winter wheat productivity under projected climate scenarios, Yang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111449

[Articles] Impacts of climate-driven yield changes on the affordability of healthy diets: a modelling study, Jiang et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101519

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Losses and destabilization of soil organic carbon stocks in coastal wetlands converted into aquaculture ponds, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17480 43 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Comment on “Flooding Is Not like Filling a Bath” by Sanders et al., Dijk et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01708.x

Multilayer soil moisture depletion intensifies drought impacts on global ecosystems, Gu et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02083-1

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Regional Heavy Rainfall Events in Guangdong, South China: Intensification and Expansion Since the Early 1990s, Liu et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70572

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01622-1 32 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Decarbonisation policy instruments and climate justice: Insights from a systematic literature review of social science literature, Ramôa & Pires, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104461

Institutional compression in climate policy integration: coordinating green electricity certificates and carbon emissions trading in China, Tian & Wang, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2722557

Resilient futures: integrating nature-based solutions and community innovation to combat climate change and foster environmental sustainability, Yu, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2690614

Uneven geographies of climate change mitigation: labour, territorial defence, and the blue economy in Colombian Caribbean mangroves, Manrique, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103223

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Energy transition at the crossroads of energy depletion and environmental policy stringency: Energy policy framework for energy giants in the indo-pacific belt, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114311 23 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A Systematic Review of the Ways Schools Engage With Climate Change Adaptation, Laub et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70080

Adaptation dominates climate responses in social-ecological systems in northern Sweden, Ohlsson et al., Communications Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44458-026-00143-6

Authoritarian diversity and its limits: regime subtypes and climate change adaptation readiness, Ko, Environmental Sociology Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2026.2724934

Climate precarity and the mobilities of rural youth: land, politics, and labour in southern Ethiopia, Chung & Schwanen, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103221

Desert flooding highlights a critical gap in climate change adaptation, Gao et al., Science 10.1126/science.aek8173

Sea-level rise projections tailored for spatial adaptation planning in the U.S., Konfirst et al., Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-026-06669-7

The climate refugee misnomer, Auslender et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2724664

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change in Africa: Impacts, adaptation, and policy responses, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102912 75 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Age-specific exposure to human-induced increases in humid heat, Pietroiusti et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb3232

Climate change and child undernutrition in Nigeria: a systematic review of evidence and policy gaps, Langkulsen et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1767416

Epidermal growth factor receptor dysregulation and climate change: insights into pollution-promoted lung cancer, Nikaido-Landry et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0508

Erratum for the Research Article “Forecast attribution reveals enhanced heat mortality from climate change in British Columbia heatwave” by C.Y. Shapland et al., [authors did not process], Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aej3478

Heat exposure and adaptive responses: a systematic literature review in Southeast Asia, Sugesti & Nastiti, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103119

Heat stress and public health issues: impacts, adaptation, and mitigation, [authors did not process], Frontiers research topics 10.3389/978-2-8325-8532-0

Heatstroke mortality in a warming climate: From physiological risk to reporting practices in a multi-country study, Tob??as et al., Temperature 10.1080/23328940.2026.2698161

[Articles] Direct and spillover hospitalisation patterns during climate hazards across regions of different health-system resilience levels in China: a nationwide retrospective analysis, Wang et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101512

[Articles] Five years of Greener NHS: improved carbon footprint assessment of the National Health Service in England, Simpson et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101464

[Articles] Health integration in national climate adaptation policies from 198 countries: a global policy analysis, Morneau et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101466

[Articles] Heat waves and annual mortality among older adults (aged ≥65 years) in the USA, Healy et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101432

[Comment] The imperative to counter fossil fuel industry disinformation for public health, Narayan et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101435

[Personal View] Reforming public health law to adapt to the changing climate: a case study of mosquito-borne disease management, Boocock et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101427

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Population at risk of dengue virus transmission has increased due to coupled climate factors and population growth, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01639-6 77 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Climate change as a driver of transformative evolution in international environmental law: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis (2014–2025), Carvajal-Morales et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1813963

Climate change impacts on human culture Other

Artificial intelligence and climate change: Lessons for global governance, Swain, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104937

Escalating Uncertainty Under Increasing Risk in Compound Heat and Precipitation Extremes, Zhou et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124193

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

UN finally admits global warming will shoot past 1.5 ºC climate limit, Dinneen, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02753-5

[Comment] A call for evidence-based adaptation: mitigating the rising global health burden of extreme heat, Li et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101287

[Personal View] Promoting climate-resilient agriculture and food security through school feeding, Singh et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101414

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Integrating night studies into climate science, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02117-9 19 cites.

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Book reviews

Climate politics: can’t live with it, can’t mitigate without it, Manjima, Political Studies Review Open Access pdf 10.1177/14789299261477263

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

An Affordability Crisis of Trump’s Own Making. The Trump administration’s energy policy is driving up costs for American households and making us sick, Yuqi Zhu, Natural Resources Defense Council

Thanks to the Trump administration’s policies to stop renewable energy and promote fossil fuels; by 2035, U.S. consumers are projected to spend up to an extra $30 billion a year on electricity under Trump’s policies, with household electricity bills increasing up to 25 percent in certain parts of the country. Trump’s energy agenda could result in up to $700 billion in lost investment in the U.S. power system over the next decade. The country could lose between 390 and 540 gigawatts of new wind, solar, and energy storage power plants over the next decade—requiring the U.S. power grid to keep more expensive, aging coal, gas, and oil plants online instead to meet growing power needs. Increased air pollution due to these policies could result in up to 69,000 additional early deaths and 85,000 extra emergency room visits and hospital admissions. This could increase health-care spending by up to $1.7 billion per year, adding further pressure on already high health-care insurance premiums for American households. Power sector carbon dioxide emissions could be twice as high by 2035. In total, the United States is projected to emit an additional 3.6 to 5.5 billion metric tons economy-wide over the next decade due to Trump’s agenda, with more than half of this extra climate pollution coming from the power sector.

Water Behind the Watts: The Hidden Risk of Powering Data Centers, James et al., Ceres

Power generation makes up the bulk of the data center water use. Data centers in the states analyzed depend on about 3.4 trillion gallons of freshwater annually for electricity, around 12 times the annual water use of Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Washington D.C., combined. The amount of water needed to produce electricity varies widely by state, depending on the type of electricity generation used. 78% of the electricity in the states analyzed came from power plants that use water to operate. Most electricity is generated by power plants located in areas facing water stress or drought (or both). In these states, 66% of power plants that use water were exposed to medium-high to extremely high water stress. Most power producers identify data centers as a primary driver of rising electricity demand, but few have considered the potential water risks tied to this growth. Most companies operating data centers do not take into account the water risks linked to the electricity they purchase.

What do Global Warming’s Six Americas think about data centers?, Gour et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Opposition to building data centers in local communities varies across Global Warming’s Six Americas, ranging from 71%1 among the Alarmed to 32% among the Disengaged. The Alarmed and the Concerned are the most likely to expect that new data centers will increase local electricity bills, while the Disengaged are the most likely to say they do not know. The Alarmed and Concerned are the most supportive of requiring data centers to offset their electricity use by installing rooftop solar on and/or weatherizing and insulating local homes, while the Dismissive are the least supportive.

The PennFuture Energy Playbook: Building Our Energy Future, Donna Kohut, Citizens for Pennsylvania’s Future

The PennFuture Energy Playbook offers policy suggestions for state lawmakers, including updating the Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard by passing legislation requiring 35% of electricity to be generated by renewable energy sources; passing Community Solar enabling legislation; incentivizing solar development on previously impacted, commercial, or industrial properties, prioritizing the rooftops of warehouses, fulfillment centers, and large government buildings; and promoting sustainable economic development by leveraging environmental standards attached to financial resources.

Solar Schools for North Carolina. Repowering education with clean energy, Quentin Good and Johanna Neumann, Frontier Group and Environment North Carolina

To tap the benefits of solar schools, North Carolina should protect and expand policies that make it easier and more financially appealing for schools to install solar panels. Schools are often ideal sites for solar energy. North Carolina could generate enough electricity from solar on public school rooftops each year to power 150,000 typical homes. Solar panels on schools reduce pollution. State policies can make it easier for schools to go solar. Local, state and federal officials should take steps to make it as easy as possible for schools to go solar, while school districts should consider adopting solar on rooftops and school grounds.

Summary Report: Second Conference on Attribution Science and Climate Law, Jessica Wentz, Columbia Law School, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law

A summary report for the Second Conference on Attribution Science and Climate Law, held at Columbia University on June 10–11, 2026. The event brought together physical scientists, legal scholars, public health researchers, economists, and policy experts to discuss key developments in climate change attribution science and its evolving role in climate law and governance. The author provides an overview of key themes and topics covered at the conference, as well as a detailed summary of the presentations and panel discussions. Video recordings of the event can also be accessed from the event website and the Sabin Center Youtube channel. Rapid advances in attribution research—including storyline approaches, integrated impact modeling, and end-to-end attribution—are strengthening the scientific foundation for linking GHG emissions, climate change, and specific harms. Panelists highlighted the utility of these methods not only as evidentiary support in climate litigation and corporate accountability claims, but also as vital tools for informing government decision-making, adaptation planning, disaster risk reduction, and international loss and damage frameworks. Discussions also confronted ongoing challenges, including political pressures on climate science, the necessity of clear communication regarding scientific uncertainties, and the importance of addressing structural inequalities alongside physical hazards.

Climate Double Agents: The Congressional lobbyists pushing fossil fuels and solutions to the climate crisis, F Minus

The authors reviewed Congressional lobbyist disclosures of 228 lobbying firms. They found fossil fuel lobbyists simultaneously lobbying on almost every aspect of the climate crisis, from climate mitigation to disaster relief to wildlife conservation. The most conflicted firm on the issue of climate mitigation funding for local governments was Greenberg Traurig, which lobbied for the American Petroleum Institute (API) and ConocoPhillips in Congress, the Western States Petroleum Association in California, and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufactures (AFPM) in New York, all of which have opposed the creation of climate superfunds. Greenberg Traurig also lobbied on shoreline protection and Everglades restoration for Miami-Dade County and lobbied for the City of Rochester and Westchester County in New York, both of which would lose tens of millions in future climate mitigation funds if the firm’s clients API and AFPM succeed in passing a Congressional bill invalidating state Climate Superfunds, including New York’s.

What to Make of Data Center Moratoriums?, Melissa Birchard, Georgetown Climate Center

State and local governments have been proposing – and in many cases enacting – data center permitting moratoriums at an increasingly rapid pace over the past six months. According to recent Heatmap reporting, over 530 local laws have been enacted to ban or restrict data center development, while many more jurisdictions are considering enacting moratoriums. However, all moratoriums are not the same. The purpose of this brief is to make these developments a little more understandable by breaking them down into some of their uses and characteristics. Identifying potential differences between moratoriums may help state and local leaders understand their options for responding to the concerns of their constituents. Looking beyond the headlines may also point policymakers and the data center industry toward substantive issues that can be addressed – in advance of any potential moratorium – through measures such as increased transparency, focused community consultation, and conservation and emissions reduction measures.

Fires without Borders: Understanding Wildfire Risks and Transboundary Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region, Du et al., Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

Wildfires are increasingly recognized as a systemic and transboundary challenge in the Asia Pacific region. The authors examine the evolving wildfire risk landscape by situating wildfires within a disaster risk framework that integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Drawing on historical fire events in the region and recent case studies from Thailand and Indonesia, the authors highlight persistent challenges in wildfire monitoring and mapping, including visibility, accessibility, and complexity gaps. Regional institutional mechanisms and wildfire monitoring systems are also presented and summarized, with critical gaps identified between global data infrastructures and local operational needs. Strengthening integrated fire management will require linking Earth observation and frontier technologies, institutional cooperation, and community-based approaches, to translate international commitments into local resilience.

Workshop: Regulatory Barriers to Small Modular Reactor Technologies for Maritime Applications, US. Center for Maritime Innovation

The workshop was held to generate insights on maritime nuclear regulatory development. A series of questions was used to gather insight on a range of topics for floating nuclear power plants (FNPPs) and nuclear-powered vessels. Over 90 stakeholders gathered in person, with another 90 participating online, each submitting recommendations in response to facilitated questions. Group discussions supplemented insights from individual participants. The workshop’s message was clear: maritime nuclear deployment will require a blended regulatory model, not piecemeal adaptation of existing rules. The highest-value near-term action is for U.S. Coast Guard and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to jointly define responsibilities, publish an interface framework, and establish a predictable approval pathway for demonstration projects. Without that, regulatory uncertainty will remain a primary barrier to deployment. It should be noted that not all recommended changes are under agency control, often requiring statutory changes. The USCMI has a planned project to further develop the regulatory framework, focusing on testing the new MOU and developing insights into further needed regulatory refinements.

GLOBSEC Competitiveness Tracker: Energy Security & Critical Raw Materials, Andrei Covatariu and Jan Rosenow, GLOBSEC

Energy security and access to critical raw materials (CRMS) have become defining factors of Europe's competitiveness and resilience. Once centered on fossil fuels, energy security now depends on reliable access to clean technologies, industrial capacity, and diversified CRM supply chains. The EU’s Competitiveness Compass connects innovation, decarbonization, and security — supported by simplification, Single Market integration, financing, skills, and EU–Member State coordination. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where exposure to high energy prices and external dependencies remains acute, aligning national priorities with EU frameworks is crucial. Surveyed stakeholders highlight slow progress, weak regulatory clarity, and limited institutional capacity, but also identify regional opportunities in grid integration, clean-firm energy, and CRM processing. CEE can either become a resilience hub or remain a vulnerability corridor. Thus, accelerating reforms and leveraging EU instruments will determine whether Europe secures its industrial base and sustains global competitiveness in the clean-energy era.

Europe’s energy security in 2026: More resilient, but systematically exposed, Izabela Surwillo and Julia Schwab, Danish Institute for International Studies

Europe has come a long way since the 2022 energy crisis—but greater resilience has not eliminated vulnerability. The authors show how Europe’s energy security risks are shifting: from dependence on Russian fossil fuels toward concentrated LNG supplies, overstretched electricity grids, critical raw-material dependencies and infrastructure that must withstand increasingly complex disruptions. As electrification accelerates, the challenge is no longer simply securing enough energy, but ensuring that grids, supply chains and essential services can keep functioning under stress. Three priorities for action stand out: stronger cross-sector crisis preparedness, better access to emergency energy equipment, and more effective support for strategic critical-material projects.

The take-off in African solar that official statistics can’t yet see, Dave Jones and Joel Nana, Ember

The authors present their estimates of solar power capacity installed in every African country from 2023 to 2026, built from Chinese customs data using a new calibrated method. They compare these estimates with official national and international statistics, examine the split between utility-scale and distributed solar, and review Africa’s emerging solar panel manufacturing. Seventeen gigawatts of solar were installed across Africa in 2026 is up 45%, the third consecutive record year. A hundred thousand solar panels were installed across Africa every day during 2026. Seventy five percent of Africa’s solar growth in 2023-2025 is likely from distributed solar – and is largely missing from official statistics.

U.S. Energy Storage Market Outlook, Quarter 3, 2026, Solar Energy Industries Association

In Q2 2026, battery energy stationary storage (BESS) installations reached 20.2 GWh GWh, the largest quarter in history and a a 108% quarter-over-quarter increase. The utility-scale market continued underpin growth, with 18 GWh installed, largely supported by seven gigawatt scale projects. Arizona installed over 6.2 GWh of utility scale projects, the largest quarterly deployment for any state in history. Residential storage added 657 MWh and commercial and industrial (C&I) added 1.8 GWh, largely on the back of demand from data centers. Two cell factories opened in Q2, bringing total cell manufacturing capacity to over 50 GWh. A new module manufacturing facility opened as well, bringing total module manufacturing capacity to over 100 GWh. By 2030, the market is set to exceed annual installations of 110 GWh and install a cumulative 683 GWh.

Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return, Atallah et al., United Nations Environment Program

The authors found that as global temperature rise gets set to cross 1.5°C, pushing climate risks and effects to dangerous new heights, the world must strive to return to below 1.5°C as soon as possible and simultaneously reduce the vulnerability of societies, communities and economies to climate impacts. The authors suggest that the world can achieve this goal by acting now to get on an ‘overshoot, peak, and decline’ pathway. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk

It’s been a rough summer for outdoor sports. July was the hottest month ever recorded in the contiguous U.S., and wildfire smoke has repeatedly reached unhealthy levels across large areas of the country.

Soccer players competing in the World Cup had to grapple with potentially dangerous heat and humidity, two ski areas suffered major damage from wildfires this summer, trout streams in the Rockies were closed to fishing in the afternoons due to warm water, and the list goes on. Many people who love the outdoors are left with choosing between not recreating at all or doing so in marginal conditions.

But athletes, fans, and outdoor enthusiasts can all be part of the solution. Outdoor recreation is a potentially powerful constituency – it engages millions of people across many age groups, demographics, and geographies. Outdoor recreation is also a substantial contributor to the U.S. economy, with a lot on the line as a warming climate threatens outdoor activities.

“I think there is a role for outdoor recreation to step up more, be more vocal,” said John Burrows, the energy and climate policy director of the Wyoming Outdoors Council. “I think it's a really important constituency.”

Here are ideas for getting started. 

1. Recognize that sports and recreation have more influence than you might think

Athletes, teams, and recreational organizations have a powerful tool that the fossil fuel industry lacks: popular goodwill. Participation in sports can be an important part of people’s identities, so a brand or a team can have an outsize impact compared to its size or financial might.

2. Don’t be afraid to share your climate values 

Climate change is a polarizing topic, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t embrace it. “It's OK to say something and have people disagree,” said Chris Miller, senior vice president of sustainability at Aspen One, which owns four ski areas. 

“I get that it feels scary,” Miller said, “but being led by something real and authentic and rooted in values is an incredible competitive advantage.”

The clothing company Patagonia is known for its commitment to environmental activism. 

“Why is Patagonia constantly mentioned as one of the most authentic brands in the world?” Miller asked. “It isn't because they're a jacket company. Because there are a lot of jacket companies.”

The middle of the road may feel safe, but having noncommittal values can do lasting damage to a brand’s reputation. Miller described recent high-profile examples of companies that backtracked on their support for diversity, equity, and inclusion, which angered customers on both sides of the political spectrum.

“When someone disagrees with your point of view, the most important thing is not to say, ‘Oh, whoops, we made a mistake, we didn't really believe that,’” Miller said. “It's to lean in and say why you believe it and why it's important.”

“Have a bit of courage, stand for something. And people will respect you for it,” he added.

Read more: The ski industry is oddly quiet on climate change 

3. Consider making climate an integral part of your team or brand’s identity 

The Vermont Green soccer club in Burlington, Vermont, has made addressing climate change part of the team’s mission since its founding. The team promotes activism, social justice, and climate action at every game. 

Read: A champion soccer team is taking on climate change, too

“We're gonna not miss that. We're not going to let that opportunity go to waste and just watch soccer,” said Patrick Infurna, a cofounder of the team.

At home matches, nonprofit organizations set up tables and educate fans about actions they can take. Halftime includes a 15-minute talk about pressing issues in front of sold-out crowds, Infurna said.

Infurna said that the team’s stance on climate has helped it become more popular. 

“You might find a whole new audience of people that are more attracted to your thing, your products, your event, because you are showing not just a compassionate approach to things, but maybe a backbone as well,” Infurna said. “We've been fortunate to have a pretty cool fan base, and we sell out all of our games.”

Vermont Green’s men’s team had an undefeated season in 2025 and won the national championship.

“We're taking care of the planet, and we're winning as we do it,” Infurna said.   

4. Identify the ways that climate is affecting your sport

Outdoor sports are subject to all sorts of weather conditions, and you can use recent research and free tools to help identify the role of climate change.

After some extreme weather events, the researchers at World Weather Attribution rapidly analyze the influence of climate change on the event. For example, the group found that a heat wave that caused dozens of ski resorts to close in the Western U.S. in 2026 was virtually impossible without climate change.

Climate Central, a nonprofit research organization, offers several tools that can help you determine how climate change is affecting your sport, including a marathon tool that shows how warm race-day temperatures are slowing running performance, a database of billion-dollar climate disasters that adds up the costs in each state, and the Climate Shift Index, which shows how much the temperature in your area has been affected by climate change on a given day. 

Meanwhile, NOAA’s Climate at a Glance tool makes it easy to look up temperatures, precipitation, drought, and other climate indicators over time. The data is available at the national, state, county, and city level and is easily customizable. 

A soccer player cools off during a match. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)

5. Leverage the economic impact of outdoor sports

Miller sees climate change as not just an environmental issue: “It's an economic issue. It's a jobs issue. It's a tax issue,” he said.

In fact, outdoor recreation is a powerful economic engine, generating $1.3 trillion dollars in economic output in 2024.

You can make that case to elected officials using a dashboard that shows the economic impact of outdoor recreation in all 50 states, including jobs, wages, and the contribution to each state’s GDP. This tool was compiled by nonpartisan researchers at Headwaters Economics. 

6. Participate in climate and energy policy

The Wyoming Outdoor Council works with groups around the state to address environmental challenges for public land, air quality, water quality, and wildlife.

“But in the last 10 years, the intersection with climate has just been so obvious,” said Burrows, the energy and climate policy director. “It impacts all these other things. And so I think that's how we justify working on it, even in one of the most heavily dependent states on fossil fuels in the country.”

During the last legislative session, the group worked at the state level to push for plug-in solar, which allows households to shave 10 to 20% off their electricity bills.

Burrows offered this suggestion for individuals or groups working on climate solutions: “Narrow it down to a few things that you and your group, or you and your friends, or you and your sports team can really digest and are passionate about, and focus on that.” 

“That's how you're going to make a meaningful impact,” he added. 

7. Become a watchdog of your energy provider

Ski resorts, stadiums, and other outdoor recreation amenities need electricity. And you can influence the climate footprint of that electricity by getting involved with your public utility commission, which makes decisions about energy sources, power plants, energy prices, and more. 

Public utility commissions offer regular opportunities for public input, including during the selection or election of commissioners. Canary Media wrote a beginner’s guide to public utility commissions, and Earthjustice has a detailed explainer that describes how and where action can make a difference.

8. Step up to the mic and give public comments

It’s not too often that you can speak your mind directly to policymakers, and opportunities to do so can be especially valuable. A powerful example of this is the relentless public pushback on data center proposals, which are often reviewed by county commissioners.

The Center for Health Law and Policy Innovation at Harvard Law School wrote a short guide for giving effective public comments. This is a great time to make use of what you learned from the fourth item in this list: Show the ways climate change is affecting your sport.

Winter Olympians speak about the negative impact climate change is having on winter sports. (Image credit: AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

9. Coordinate with other teams and groups

Many sports have organizing bodies and networks of guides, coaches, or athletes. These groups can be useful for communicating to larger groups, pooling resources, and building coalitions. For example, the International Climbing and Mountaineering Federation published a Climate Action Plan for Member Federations, which outlines steps for getting started. 

That said, many sports organizations position themselves in a safe, middle-of-the-road stance or nibble at the edges of climate policy with less controversial topics like access to public lands. For more assertive climate action, look for organizations that are unapologetically working to reduce fossil fuel development and burning, such as the Surfrider Foundation and Protect Our Winters.

Another option is to join nearby efforts to advance climate action. In many locations, you can find advocacy groups working to expand climate solutions and improve public policy. Joining an existing group is easier than trying to launch a new initiative from scratch.

“Look at groups that are doing that good work,” Burrows said, “and support them, however you can.”

10. Work to end fossil fuel sponsorships

Sponsorships of events, teams, and athletes can create a positive brand image and build consumer trust. Fossil fuel companies use sports sponsorships to boost their image – which has been termed “sportswashing” – even as the actions of these companies put athletes in jeopardy.

There are many efforts underway to remove fossil fuel advertising from sports teams and events, and this is an action that a team of any scale can tackle.

The Ski Fossil Free campaign is circulating a petition demanding sports organizing bodies publish a report that evaluates whether fossil fuel marketing is acceptable in organized winter sports. Over 25,000 people have signed the petition, and winter sports brands and organizations can sign up to join the campaign.

A similar effort is underway for soccer, prompted in part by Saudi Aramco’s sponsorship of the World Cup. A Dutch advocacy group is calling for Fossil Free Football.

Another group, called Cool Down, is advocating to end fossil fuel advertising across multiple sports and countries.

Most of all, show up

Burrows acknowledged it can be hard to know where to start with a new climate advocacy effort.

“I do think we kind of have this decision paralysis, like, ‘It's too big of an issue. I don't know how to even get started,’” he said. “We gotta get past that.”

Burrows advised new advocates to find an angle that they find especially motivating, and dig in to become a bit of an expert.

If only a small fraction of people did that, Burrows said, “I think it would really move the needle in good ways.”

This article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

 

//

This is a re-post from By the Numbers by Hannah Ritchie

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article about why the UK needs to get its act together and build some new reservoirs. It hasn’t built one in my lifetime — despite adding 10 million people — and the mismatch between winter and summer rain is probably going to get worse.

Someone asked a very reasonable question: why don’t we just build some desalination plants instead? Reservoirs are pretty big infrastructure projects. They constantly get blocked by local communities. They clearly disrupt the ecosystems and environments where they’re built.

Now, a lot of you will immediately think this is an insane idea. Do you realise how much energy desalination uses?!

I admit, it does seem a bit mad. Rather than just collecting freshwater in a big hole before it goes into the ocean, we’ll let it run in there, get all salty, then use a bunch of energy to pull the salt back out again.

For a long time, I had also held the “desalination consumes so much energy” tightly. It was a mantra I’d been taught a long time ago, and never updated. That is, until a few years ago, when I dug into the latest numbers. Supplying drinking and household water through desalination is really quite cheap, and uses far less energy than I’d have guessed.

How would these numbers work out for the UK? By that, we’re really talking about England, because that is where most of the water demand will be.

The Environment Agency estimates that by 2050, England will need to fill a deficit of 5 billion litres per day.1 Reverse osmosis from seawater consumes around 4 kWh per cubic metre (m3).2 Or 4 Wh per litre. That means we’d need 7 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity to meet all of England’s additional demand from desalination.3

The UK consumes around 290 TWh of electricity a year, so this would add a little over 2% to our annual demand.4 That’s not that much.

The UK’s electricity demand is already set to roughly double by 2050 to meet growing demand from the shift to electrified transport, heating, and industry. An extra 1% or 2% to have adequate water supplies doesn’t seem like a huge deal.

Producing that extra electricity has some (but small) environmental impact, whether it’s the materials or the land use. They also have the problem of managing brine — the plant’s output that they need to discharge somewhere. But reservoirs have environmental costs, too. How do they compare on other measures?

Why wouldn’t we go for desalination?

England already has a desalination plant — Beckton in London — which gives us some insights into how this goes.

How long does it take to build them?

I first thought this would be a win for desalination. Historical experience is actually quite positive. The Beckton plant took six years to build; the first planning application was submitted in 2004, and it was completed in 2010. Compare that to the Abingdon reservoir, which has been a saga going on for more than 15 years.

The prospects for desalination plants looked good until I found out that two plants — Bacton and Mablethorpe — in the early feasibility stages are not expected until at least 2040. That’s no better than a reservoir. It seems that Beckton was built under a far simpler regulatory regime that no longer exists. Desalination projects will be stuck in the long planning and approval queues that almost every infrastructure project now faces.

How many would we need?

If they were the same size as the Beckton one, we’d need around 50.5 The desalination plant the UK has built is small. We could dramatically reduce that by building much larger plants. The Sorek plant in Israel, for example, has a capacity five or six times larger. With these designs, we’d need around 8.

Would they be expensive?

Building desalination plants would be more expensive than many alternatives. The government plans to fill a lot of the water deficit, not through supply solutions like desalination or reservoirs, but by fixing leakages in the water system (which are pretty large) and improving efficiency. Those solutions obviously make sense and are far cheaper than building large infrastructure projects (although there are diminishing returns: the first leaks are very cheap to fix, but there is a tail where things get increasingly expensive).

But for the remaining gap that needs to be filled with new supplies, is it cheaper to desalinate or to build a reservoir?

There are two ways to compare these: the upfront cost to build, and how expensive water is over the lifetime of the project.

Reservoirs are not automatically cheaper than desalination plants. Costed over their lifetime (which can be more than 80 years), they often are. But in the near- to medium-term, I don’t think they clearly win on economics. Reservoirs do come with high upfront costs, even if they’re then cheaper to run. Recent figures from Severn Trent put the average capital cost at £8.12 million per Ml per day for reservoirs, compared with £9.77 million per Ml per day for desalination.6 Desalination is around 20% more expensive to build. But these projected costs have a habit of ballooning, so I could quite plausibly believe that the inverse becomes true.

Desalination plants in the UK are expensive by international standards. In the UK, it costs somewhere between $1.50 and $12 per m3. That range is so large because it depends on how often the desalination plant is running (we’ll come on to this later). That compares to around $0.50 in the Middle East, $1 in Australia, and $2 to $3 in the US.

There are a couple of reasons why it’s more expensive. The UK doesn’t have much experience building desalination plants, so it misses out on some of the learning that drives down costs. Its current plant and proposed ones are small, so we miss out on economies of scale. The UK has strict planning regulations that extend timelines and are costly, even before construction begins. Finally, its plants would be used intermittently — probably only in the summer, and not even every summer. That redundancy drives up costs compared to a plant that runs continuously, as in countries like Australia or the Middle East.

The real problem with desalination plants in the UK is how rarely they’d run

The places where desalination works well have one thing in common: they’re running almost all the time. They don’t just get turned on in a drought. They’re there to provide basic water services year-round.

That’s not how the UK’s current desalination plant works. It’s not how its future ones would work either.

This affects the economics: the unit price is lower for plants running 24/7. But it also affects their reliability.

The Beckton plant was completed more than 15 years ago, and it has only been switched on 5 times. When the UK was facing severe droughts in 2022, it was ordered to come online. Despite assurances that it was ready to go online, it was not. The plant did not run and provided no help whatsoever during the crisis period that it was specifically built for.

This year was a repeat of that. Most of England was in drought this summer. The Beckton plant was “unusable” because it needed “essential operational upgrades”.

The problem is that the infrastructure that is almost never used does not go through the same continual operational testing as stuff that runs continuously.

Here’s an excerpt of a government examination with the CEO of Thames Water:

Chris Weston: The first thing I would say is we have a team at the desalination plant that is working very hard to try to make it work.

Chair: Has it ever worked properly?

Chris Weston: It has worked in the past.

Chair: It is not going to work this year though?

Chris Weston: No, and I share your concerns. The desalination plant is a big problem for us. I wonder why it was built in the first place.

Chair: Two hundred and fifty million pounds.

Chris Weston: Yes, I accept that. It is not a good story, it was not a good investment, and there are no excuses about it. I would point out one thing with the desalination plant: at the moment, it relies on a very complicated and expensive process. Within it, it has certain treatment membranes. Those treatment membranes are at the end of their life.

This is nothing specific to the UK. We see it in Australia, too. Desalination plants have worked well in Perth because they are used as a key source of drinking water, and these plants run almost continuously.

Elsewhere, the story is similar to Beckton’s. Melbourne’s plant was completed in 2012, but mothballed until 2017, when it started delivering water for the first time. The government had agreed contracts to pay for this every year, despite receiving no water in return. In Adelaide, the plant sits idle for most of the wetter months. But Sydney has gone in the other direction: in 2023, the government stopped regarding it as an on-off backup, and it now runs close to a full-time operation. Maybe that’s something Britain can learn from.

For me, this is the crux of it.

I am not worried about the energy demands of desalination for the UK. I think adding 1% to 2% to our electricity demand is not unmanageable. I’d be happy with that trade-off if it reduced the environmental impact of reservoirs and unsustainable extraction from existing aquifers.

The problem is that reserving desalination for emergency situations does not seem to work well. It hurts the economics. It means they sit idle for years, and then are not ready to go when a crisis hits. Desalination plants work far better when you need continuous freshwater supplies. For Britain, that means they’d be far better suited to relieving pressure on existing aquifers (which is less stop-start) than to being kept on reserve for drought management.

If we build them, we should make sure we actually use them.

1 This is partly due to population growth, partly due to climate change, but actually the biggest driver is more water resources to reduce pressure on existing aquifers in environmentally-sensitive areas.

2 This is on the higher end of the estimates, but I'm trying to be conservative/harsh here.

3 5 billion * 365 * 4 = 7.3x10 12 Wh. That's 7 billion kWh (or 7 TWh). One point to note is that electricity generation also uses water (how much depends on the electricity source). But even if this extra demand was being supplied by gas (which uses the most water), it would be far less than 1% of the water deficit: millions rather than billions of m3.

4 7 / 290 * 100 = 2.4%

5 Thames Water previously scoped the plant to have a capacity for around 150 million litres per day. But has since said that its more realistic capacity is around 100 million litres.

6 This report cites a range of £1000 to £9000 per ML. I've converted that to cubic metres, and dollars. https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/157464/html/

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

On the morning of August 26th, part of a glacier cliff on the north face of Langtang Lirung (a ~7,200 meter peak 60 km north of Kathmandu) collapsed. The falling mass of ice and rock released energy equivalent to a magnitude 5.2 earthquake according to the USGS, and set off a debris flow that traveled ~100 km down into the Trishuli and Bhote Koshi rivers. This buried and washed away large parts of towns, severed the only highway between Nepal and China, and damaged at least six hydropower facilities. Currently (the morning of August 28th), reports put the death toll at around 500, with roughly 2,000 people still missing across Nepal and Tibet, and we expect these numbers to continue to rise.

The tragedy is unfortunately familiar for the Langtang valley. In 2015, shaking from a magnitude 7.8 earthquake released an avalanche of ice and rock from this same mountain that buried Langtang village and killed around 300 people. But there is an important difference between the two events: in 2015 an earthquake triggered the collapse. This time there was no tectonic trigger. The mountain simply failed, and the collapse itself produced a seismic event that was initially mistaken for an earthquake.

Within hours, some people on social media were confidently asserting that climate change caused the disaster, while others were just as confidently asserting it had nothing to do with it. In this piece I’ll try and lay out what the data and the scientific literature actually supports.

The short version is this: any formal attribution of this specific collapse to climate change is premature, and single events like this are genuinely hard to attribute even after careful study. At the same time, the collapse happened on a mountain that has warmed rapidly for decades, immediately after four consecutive summers that all rank among the five warmest in at least 86 years, and in a valley that has been losing ice at an accelerating rate. A rapidly warming climate and retreating glaciers are increasing risks of these sorts of events in the region, whether or not we can ultimately attribute this particular event.

A rapidly warming mountain

Let’s take a look at how temperatures have changed in the region where the glacier collapsed. The figure below shows ERA5 surface air temperatures for the ~25 km grid cell containing the glacier, both for monthly anomalies since 1940 and the summer (June–August) average for each year.1

ERA5 2m temperature for the 0.25° grid cell containing the Langtang Lirung collapse source zone (28.25N, 85.5E, with a gridcell elevation of 4,322 m). Top: monthly anomalies relative to a 1961–1990 baseline, with a 12-month running mean. Bottom: June–August mean temperature per year, 1940–2026; the 2026 value is preliminary (ERA5T, August through the 22nd). See this article’s GitHub page for underlying data.

Summers at the site have warmed at around 0.29C per decade since 1940, with the most recent 30 years (1996-2025) averaging about 1C warmer than the 1961-1990 baseline. The four most recent summers (2022 through 2025) all rank among the five warmest on record. A newly published study of the Langtang Catchment (Silwal et al 2026) also provides a separate check on my numbers. Using the higher-resolution ERA5-Land product, they find the glacial areas of the catchment (above 4000 m) warmed at 0.31C per decade over 1960-2023.

The glacial collapse came at the end of an exceptionally warm monsoon season. July 2026 was the second warmest July in the 86-year record (at 9.4C, behind only 2024’s 9.8C). The first three weeks of August (the latest daily data available when I ran this analysis) averaged 9.3C, running above the warmest complete August on record (9.1C in 2022). The collapse came on August 26th.2

Warm summers do not by themselves knock a mountain down. But sustained warmth at a glacial cliff increases risks by melting the ice that buttresses steep slopes, sending meltwater into cracks in the rock, and degrading the permafrost that acts as a frozen glue holding fractured high-altitude rock faces together (Gruber and Haeberli 2007). As the glaciologist Jakob Steiner told Scientific American, “you basically had the lower part of a glacier tongue that sheared off because the rock below failed.”

A valley losing its ice

Next let’s look at whats been happening to the region’s glaciers. The figure below shows glacier mass balance for the surrounding region (the Randolph Glacier Inventory’s South Asia East region, which spans the Himalaya east of ~81E, including Nepal) from the WGMS annual mass change estimates, along with in-situ measurements from two Nepali glaciers where long term measurements are available. This includes Yala Glacier in the Langtang valley itself, around 10 km from the collapse site.

Annual and cumulative glacier mass balance for the RGI South Asia East region (WGMS annual mass-change estimates v2026, hydrological years 1957–2025, ±1σ shading), and annual in-situ mass balance for Yala Glacier (Langtang valley) and Mera Glacier (Everest region) from the WGMS Fluctuations of Glaciers database. See this article’s GitHub page for underlying data.

Regional glaciers have lost a cumulative 26 meters of water equivalent since 1957 – equivalent to shaving roughly 30 meters of ice thickness off the average glacier surface. More than half of that loss (about 14 m w.e.) has occurred since the year 2000, with 2024 and 1997 as the two biggest loss years on record. Yala Glacier, the closest measured glacier to the collapse site, lost an average of 0.92 m w.e. per year over 2012–2025, with its worst year (-1.90 m w.e.) in 2024.3

Yala has become something of a symbol of Himalayan ice loss: this past May, ICIMOD and local communities held a tribute ceremony at the glacier, which has shrunk by 66% and retreated 784 meters since it was first surveyed in the 1970s. In their new paper, Silwal and colleagues find Yala’s equilibrium line (the altitude above which a glacier gains mass) has risen roughly 200–250 m since the 1980s and now sits above 5600 m. This is above the top of the glacier itself, meaning the entire glacier now sits in the melt zone.

Studies of the Langtang catchment specifically have found glacier thinning nearly doubled between 1974-2006 and 2006-2015 Ragettli et al 2016, mirroring the Himalaya-wide doubling of ice loss between 1975-2000 and 2000-2016 found by Maurer et al (2019) and the global acceleration documented by Hugonnet et al (2021).

The Langtang catchment has lost around 42% of its glacier area since the Little Ice Age (~1815, Silwal et al 2026), with the rate of loss more than quadrupling from 0.11% per year over 1815-1964 to 0.49% per year over 1964-2023, and the fastest loss coming after 2000. The number of glaciers nearly doubled (58 to 115) over that period as retreating glaciers have fragmented and disconnected into pieces.

The cause of this ice loss is clear. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report concluded that “human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s.” When researchers have done formal attribution studies of individual glacier hazards (e.g. Stuart-Smith et al (2021) on the glacial lake threatening Huaraz, Peru), they have found glacier retreat that is “virtually certain” to be outside natural variability.

Why attribution of the collapse itself is premature

So why not simply connect the dots, and say that a warming mountain, retreating glaciers, and a record-warm August led to the collapse? The challenge is that the chain of causation for rock-ice avalanches is much messier than for glacier retreat, and the scientific literature on these events is consistently, and appropriately, cautious.

The Himalayan mountains have always shed ice and rock, as skeptics of any climate link will point out. The 2015 Langtang avalanche in the region was caused by a magnitude 7.8 earthquake rather than a string of warm summers. Steep glaciated faces fail for reasons of geometry, geology, and bad luck that have nothing to do with human emissions. Attribution of a specific collapse requires detailed forensic reconstructions on specific drivers before causes can be known with any certainty, and that work will take months to years.

The best precedent here is the February 2021 Chamoli disaster in the Indian Himalaya, where a rock-ice avalanche killed more than 200 people. The definitive study of that event (Shugar et al 2021 in Science) reconstructed the failure in detail but stopped short of attributing it to climate change, while noting that warming increases the probability of such events. Studies of other large glacier collapses, like the 2016 twin glacier detachments in Tibet (Kääb et al 2018), reach similarly hedged conclusions. A 2021 survey found an apparent increase in large glacier-related landslides in High Mountain Asia over 1998–2018, but its authors flagged the small sample size and cautioned that the association with warming “requires further research.” We simply do not have the kind of long, well-observed event record for high-mountain collapses that we have for heatwaves or heavy rainfall, where rapid attribution is now routine.

There is a related argument I’ve seen circulating online that events like this happened long before modern warming, and if anything a world with more glaciers should have more ice available to fall. The first part is clearly true. The largest ice avalanche ever observed in the Alps came off the Altels glacier in 1895 (around 4 million cubic meters), and a 1962 rock-ice avalanche from Huascarán in Peru killed around 4,000 people with no apparent trigger at all. Mountains were shedding ice catastrophically well before we started burning fossil fuels in earnest. But the existence of old events tells us nothing about whether the odds are changing, and heat waves happened in 1900 too (just less frequently). It is worth noting that the the best modern reanalysis of the Altels collapse, Faillettaz et al 2011, suspects hot summers in the preceding years warmed the glacier’s frozen bed toward the melting point.

Hazard from these slopes are not solely determined by how much ice sits on them. Rather, what drives risks is how fast the ice and the frozen ground beneath the ice are changing. A cold glacier frozen to its bed in a stable climate will be comparatively secure, but one in transition will be more at risk. Thinning glaciers withdraw support from the steep rock faces they once buttressed (called the “paraglacial response”, Ballantyne 2002), meltwater reaches previously dry failure planes, and warming permafrost loses the ice cement that held fractured rock together.

Its also worth listening to what experts have been saying about the event. Kristen Cook of Grenoble Alpes University told Scientific American that “it’s difficult to conclusively link a single event directly to climate change. We know it’s getting warmer in the Himalaya.” Dan Shugar, who led the Chamoli study, was cautious on this event’s specific cause while noting he is “100 percent” certain climate change will make such events more likely, “by some combination of glacier melt, permafrost thaw, and changes to precipitation and temperature patterns.”

Confident claims that climate change caused this disaster are getting ahead of the evidence. But at the same time, confident claims that it played no role ignore the rapid changes that we’ve observed in the area around where the mountain failed.

What are the takeaways here?

This is a humanitarian catastrophe, and the immediate causes of the enormous death toll include things like villages and infrastructure concentrated along narrow river corridors, a debris flow that covered 100 km, and limited warning systems that have little to do with climate change. As with other extreme events, we shouldn’t let debates about attribution distract from the urgent need to reduce vulnerability.

It is clearly premature to attribute the collapse itself to climate change. Given the messy causality of rock-ice avalanches, a definitive single-event attribution may never be possible. We will likely see careful forensic studies to be published over the next year or two (as happened after Chamoli), and I’d treat any confident causal claim made this week (in either direction) with a lot of skepticism.

But the broader context is not in doubt. The collapse happened on a mountain warming at around 0.29C per decade in summer, immediately after four consecutive summers that all rank among the five warmest in an 86-year record, during an August that was running warmer than any complete August on record, in a valley that has lost ice at an accelerating pace, and in a region where human influence is very likely the main driver of glacier retreat.

High Mountain Asia already has more people exposed to glacier flood hazards than anywhere else on Earth, and projections suggest the Hindu Kush Himalaya could lose a large fraction of its remaining ice this century, with losses scaling with emissions (Rounce et al 2023). The ice that holds these mountains together is being lost, and every tenth of a degree of additional warming pushes these systems further outside the conditions in which the region’s settlements, trails, and hydropower plants were built.

So when people ask whether climate change caused the disaster in Nepal, the answer is that we don’t know, and we may never know for this specific event. But if the question is whether a warming climate is making disasters like this one more likely in the Himalayas, the literature and essentially every scientist working on these hazards point in the same direction.

I’ve included a more detailed methods writeup and code to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

1 A single 0.25° ERA5 grid cell in terrain this steep is an imperfect measure of the temperatures at the glacier itself; the grid cell spans valley floors around 1,400 m to the 7,200 m summit, with a mean elevation of 4,322 m. Early reports put the failure zone above 5,000 m. Absolute temperatures at the failure zone are substantially colder than the cell average, but anomalies and trends should be more consistent across elevations (if anything we’d expect slightly faster warming at higher elevations). ERA5 also has some limitations in the High Mountain Asia region before the satellite era (pre-1979), so I’d put less weight on individual early extremes than on the long-term trend.

2 For what it’s worth, the partial 2026 summer (8.0C) sits close to the long-term trend line, well below 2024, so the striking 2026 signal is in the July and August values specifically rather than the summer as a whole.

3 Yala is a small, debris-free, relatively low-elevation glacier that is known to lose mass faster than the regional average, and it is not a direct proxy for the hanging glaciers on Langtang Lirung’s north face. I’m showing it because it is the closest long-running measured glacier to the collapse site.

A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 23, 2026 thru Sat, August 29, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)

• Climate change is unearthing new archeological discoveries, while also threating them NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben speaks with Jørgen Hollesen, a Senior Researcher at the National Museum of Denmark, about how climate change is impacting the study of archaeology. NPR, Danielle Kurtzleben, Aug 23, 2026.
• The world inches toward catastrophic climate events: ‘Bigger shocks are on the way’ Scientists have long warned that the world will experience more intense extreme weather events like heat waves, storms, floods and droughts. But what once seemed like the realm of fiction is now discussed as a possibility, even an inevitability. AP News, Peter Pringaman, Aug 24, 2026.
• Five ways Europe's heat-wave summer is hot, hot, hot Phys.org, Edward Zinin (editor), Aug 24, 2026.
• World`s oceans hit hottest temperature on record in August The new ocean heat record being set in August is especially remarkable as global sea temperatures are typically highest in March and April, after the austral summer. The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Aug 24, 2026.
• How does a collapsing glacier turn into a lethal wall of mud and water? An expert explains what happened in Nepal A collapsing glacier in Tibet led to a devastating wall of water and debris roaring through a valley in Nepal, leaving hundreds dead and many hundreds still missing. The Conversation, Stuart Dunning, Aug 27, 2026.
• Nepal`s devastating floods reveal the danger of `cascading hazards` in Himalayas How many factors driven by climate change can add up to disaster. The Conversation, Daniel Parsons, Aug 27, 2026.
• El Niño climate patterns supercharged by burning of fossil fuels, study finds ‘Godzilla’ event currently brewing could push 50 million people into acute hunger before the end of next year The Guardian, Oliver Milman, Aug 27, 2026.
• Climate crisis could be destabilising mountain areas like Nepal, experts warn Unusual heat this year may have melted ice and thawed bonds that hold glaciers in place – leading to catastrophe The Guardian, Jonathan Watts, Aug 27, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (6 articles)

• Near-real-time storyline attribution for everyday global weather An experimental reanalysis-based approach for extreme event attribution Climate Lab Book, Ed Hawkins, Aug 24, 2026.
• Climate Model Benchmarking: Building Trust and Advancing Science A critical look at how well climate models work, how to successfully use them, and the anticipated challenges for their next-generation development. Eos, Birgit Hassler, Forrest Hoffman, Ranjini Swaminathan and Beth Dingley, Aug 24, 2026.
• The biggest carbon polluters are to blame for half of U.S. western water lost, `groundbreaking` paper says Some of the largest fossil fuel companies on Earth are disproportionately responsible for the water crisis in the American West, according to a first-of-its-kind study published Tuesday. Inside Climate News, Jake Bolster, Aug 25, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #35 2026 Skeptical Science's weekly survey of freshly published climate research. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Aug 27, 2026.
• Climate change is strengthening El Niño, coral records suggest 1000-year archive from the Galápagos portends greater weather disruptions from the Pacific climate cycle. Science, Julia Vaz, Aug 27, 2026.
• Scientists collaborated with narwhals to study warming waters in the Arctic Scientists collaborated with narwhals for a new study to understand human-caused climate change in the Arctic and rising sea levels around the world. NPR, Rachel Carlson, Aug 28, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles)

• U.S. Cuts Colorado River Water for Arizona, California and Nevada Arizona’s share of the river will shrink by a third, likely increasing reliance on groundwater and raising pressure on agriculture. NYT, Scott Dance, Aug 21, 2026.
• Council set to axe climate emergency declaration UK political party Reform discovers that basic physics is ''woke."" BBC News, Victoria Scheer and Annaleece Longmore, Aug 22, 2026.
• Trump demands `lies` in West Point climate curriculum, professor claims in new lawsuit A tenured professor at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point claims he was fired after pushing back on a presidential directive to “defy science” and stop teaching cadets that climate change had “primarily human causes, something contrary to the ideology of the Commander in Chief and forbidden at West Point.” The Independent News, Justin Rohrlich, Aug 26, 2026.
• West Point Climate Professor Says He Was Fired for Refusing to `Defy Science` Dr. Adam Kalkstein is suing the U. S. Military Academy, where he was a professor of geography and the only climate scientist, after being fired. New York Times, Michael C. Bender and Greg Jaffe, Aug 26, 2026.
• ?W?hy are European leaders staying silent after our summer of climate shock? Lethal temperatures ?and wildfires have exposed a widening gulf between voters demanding ?action and politicians unwilling to confront the long-term choices global heating requires The Guardian, Jon Henley, Aug 26, 2026.

Miscellaneous (3 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 16, 2026 thru Sat, August 22, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Aug 23, 2026.
• If all car tyres were filled with CO2, would this cut atmospheric carbon significantly? Skeptical Science would like to hear your answer to this in comments: ''If all the vehicles on the planet had their tyres pumped up with CO2, would this lock up enough carbon to lower the amount in the air significantly?'' The Guardian, Guardian Staff, Aug 23, 2026.
• Mission impossible? Quantifying military emissions Military and wartime emissions are difficult to track—but too important to ignore. Bulletin of the Atomic Scienctists, Neta C. Crawford, Aug 24, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (2 articles)

• Against the wind: despite Trump`s attacks, unions are fighting for good US clean energy jobs Since Hurricane Sandy in 2012, a growing labor movement has addressed the climate crisis and economic inequality The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Aug 23, 2026.
• Fact brief - Do wind turbines release more emissions than burning fossil fuels? No - Wind turbines generate emissions during construction and transportation, but their overall climate impact is far lower than that of fossil fuels. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Aug 25, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• Florida shows how to adapt as coastal cities face growing threats from sea level rise and storms With a state government locked in denial of climate change, Floridians ''DIY'' and show how to self-help as coastal cities face growing threats from sea level rise and storms. Associated Press, Dorany Pineda, Aug 22, 2026.
• Empty North Sea oil fields could store enough green hydrogen to power the country for seven years Depleted oil and gas fields that powered Britain for half a century could be refilled with hydrogen made from wind and solar power. The Conversation, Stuart Jones , Aug 24, 2026.

Health Aspects of Climate Change (2 articles)

• Climate change exposes 580 million children to 20 extra `heat-stress days` every year Carbon Brief, Ayesha Tandon, Aug 26, 2026.
• Climate Change Exposes 580 Million Children to 20 Extra "Heat-Stress Days" Every Year More than 40% of children under the age of 10 globally are already experiencing at least 20 additional “heat-stress days” due to climate change. CleanTechnica, Ayesha Tandon, Aug 28, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• How the Black Summer fires failed to shift Australians` climate views The research, published today by the Royal Society, indicates that misinformation may have dampened the fires’ impact on the public’s perception of climate risk, as evidenced by the widespread endorsement of the false claim that arsonists caused the bushfires – a belief held by 88.89 per cent of sceptics, 56.96 per cent of fence-sitters, and 38.79 per cent of acceptors. Sydney Morning Herald, Nick O'Malley, Aug 25, 2026.

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Open access notables

Carbon emissions exacerbating the Western US water crisis, Williams et al., Communications Earth & Environmen

In the western US, limited water supply and high demand--accentuated by anthropogenic climate change--have resulted in overallocated water resources and rapidly depleting groundwater. Simultaneously, legal and policy mechanisms are being pursued regarding the contributions of large emitting entities (“Carbon Majors”) to such impacts. Here, we quantify impacts on western US water resources attributable to the Carbon Majors, and compare results with a simpler-to-use (‘proportional’) approach. Anthropogenic climate change has driven large decreases in water supply (snowpack and streamflow) and increases in water demand (irrigation demand), with roughly half attributable to the Carbon Majors. These changes have led to a widening seasonal gap between water supply and demand, and with Carbon Majors emissions accounting for ~1/3 of observed, climatically-driven groundwater loss in the Central Valley during 2003-2024. Though both approaches yield similar results, consistent over- and underestimations are present in each variable, suggesting caution is needed when using the proportional approach.

Evolution of Global Sea-Level Rise Projections and Their Uncertainty, Garner et al., Earth's Future

For more than 40 years, scientists have projected future sea-level change. Documenting how sea-level projections have evolved is vital for tracking progress, uncertainties, and future research needs. Here, we update and analyze a database of global-mean sea level (GMSL) projections dating from 1982 to 2025, identifying five key findings. First, GMSL projection generation has been concentrated in a small number of developed countries, with 95% of projections produced in the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, or Australia. Second, while GMSL projections for 2050 and 2100 have been published regularly since the early 1980s, only 30 of 103 studies have produced projections extending beyond 2100; all but one of these 30 studies postdates 2010. Third, among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of highest GMSL projections for 2100 has broadened since 2007, reaching 0.6–2.0 m across publications since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Fourth, GMSL projections from the IPCC have historically been conservative compared to projections from individual studies. Prior to AR6, ∼66% of 2100 projections at the upper end of uncertainty intervals from individual studies exceeded the corresponding upper projections from IPCC reports. However, the inclusion of “low-confidence” GMSL projections in AR6 to assess higher amounts of GMSL change of poorly known likelihood reduces this problem: the 83rd percentile of these low-confidence projections is exceeded by <25% of upper estimates from individual studies. Finally, analyses suggest that the arrival time of key GMSL milestones are often similar for projections spanning multiple eras and using various methodologies.

Equatorial Extreme Convective Storms Are Expanding and Becoming More Persistent, Zhuang et al., AGU Advance

Extreme rainfall is projected to intensify with climate warming, yet changes in the spatiotemporal structure of extreme-producing storms remain poorly understood in the tropics, as the most convectively active regions of the world are also the most data-scarce. We here leverage the first long-term, sub-kilometer, sub-hourly observational network in equatorial Singapore (730 k?m2), with 122 rain gauges reporting 5 min intensities for 2020–2024 and 82 stations with hourly accumulations for 1980–2024, combined with X-band radar (5 min, 100 m) to produce a high-resolution gridded rainfall reanalysis. Our findings indicate that extreme rainfall in Singapore is becoming larger and more persistent, with intensification resulting in higher storm rainfall volumes while rainfall peak intensities remain largely unchanged. Furthermore, extreme rainfall storms are strikingly compact, with spatial and temporal correlations halving over just 2 km and 4 min, decaying faster than previously recognized and observed elsewhere. This suggests that analyses based on coarse data sets or single stations may have misrepresented rainfall intensification under warming.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Survey reveals gap between climate change concern and actual news coverage, Climate News Tracker/Kantar

A survey of journalists and production staff across UK public service media concluded climate reporting needs new approaches. Broadcast journalists in Britain say they rank climate change and environmental issues above many of the traditional pillars of news coverage – including the National Health Service, international conflict and immigration – yet this is not reflected in what audiences actually see and hear. More than 80% of respondents said crowded news agendas and packed running orders hinder climate coverage. Program editors and channel schedulers may be willing to extend a bulletin for a dramatic, unexpected and consequential story, but the climate crisis rarely meets the threshold for such immediate editorial prioritization. The planet heating up is a slow-burning story whose significance has developed over years rather than hours, making it harder to compete with the urgency of daily news. Journalists also highlighted the difficulty of finding strong editorial “pegs” for climate stories outside major weather events or political announcements. Some 65% said climate stories do not always have a clear or timely news peg.

Climate change is driving unprecedented European ocean temperatures, with severe impacts for marine life, Bergin et al., World Weather Attribution

Researchers from Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, Ireland, and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme sea surface temperature (SSTs) conditions along the European coasts in July 2026. This year’s high SSTs have been remarkable not only in their intensity, but also in how early in the year they were reached. To assess whether all of the observed warming is attributable to human-induced climate change, we combine observations and climate models. In the Celtic region, climate models and observations show very similar trends, while in all other regions the observed trends are much stronger than those simulated by climate models. Despite this, the authors found that in the two Mediterranean regions, the increase in warming attributable to human-induced climate change is about 2°C, substantially surpassing the level of global warming, even under this conservative estimate. 121 articles in 54 journals by 866 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Disturbance characteristics and forest properties regulate surface warming and recovery across Europe, Su et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02071-5

Strengthening impact of Indian Ocean Basin Mode on ENSO under greenhouse warming, Zhao et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105688

Transient Global Overturning Following the Shutdown of North Atlantic Deep Water Formation, Sun & Thompson, AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2026av002462

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Understanding the role of contrails and contrail cirrus in climate change: a global perspective, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024 25 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

A Subtle Atmospheric Shift Is Redefining Winter Hydrology on the Tibetan Plateau, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121477

Attribution of Summer Warming Trends in the North China Plain during 1968–2023, Li et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0102.1

Carbon emissions exacerbating the Western US water crisis, Williams et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03900-6

Equatorial Extreme Convective Storms Are Expanding and Becoming More Persistent, Zhuang et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2026av002370

Evolution of Climate Extremes Over the Indian Subcontinent Using a Revised CEI, Thota et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70467

Recent Warming Amplification in the Yangtze River Basin Compared to the Global Land, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046491

State of the UK Climate in 2025, Kendon et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70470

Synoptic drivers of the August 2024 record-breaking rainfall in the Chadian Sahara: dynamics, thermodynamics, and socio-economic consequences, Tchinda et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-1425-2026

Widespread coral bleaching across subtropical and temperate Japan under record marine heat stress, Kurihara et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-65095-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season in Canada, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-51154-7 295 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A Guide to Single Changepoint Tests for the Climate Researcher, Lund & Shi, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0681.1

Application of spatial statistics for climate-sensitive natural hazard management, Reinprecht et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100873

Historical cold biases exaggerate future elevation-dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau, Deng et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109288

Sensitivity to climate Delta selection in Pseudo-global warming simulations of mesoscale convective systems: case study of the august 2022 event in northern Japan, Tahara & Hiraga, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1921704

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems, Earth System Dynamics, 10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024 92 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

100 m resolution projection of future urban heat Island of a tropical Coastal City, Chen et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103100

CMIP6 Historical Evaluation and Future Changes of Climate Extreme Indices at Regional Scale From the US-Mexico Border Region to Central America, Ramos-Esteban et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70536

Disentangling Anthropogenic Effects on Southern Hemisphere Circulation and Surface Climate: A Multi-Model Large Ensemble Approach, Diaz et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd046229

Projection and Uncertainty of Midsummer Precipitation in the Northern China Monsoon Region by CMIP6 Models, Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70438

Regional Temperature Trends and Future Warming Risks in Pakistan Using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Ensembles and Machine Learning Techniques, Ullah et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70497

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
IMO2020 Regulations Accelerate Global Warming by up to 3 Years in UKESM1, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef005011 22 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A sea ice free Arctic: CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track abrupt-127k experimental protocol and motivation, Sime et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-5881-2026

Drought forecasting across multiple temporal scales using CMIP6 projections and hybrid deep learning models for Central Anatolia, Türkiye, Citakoglu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109271

Evaluating North American Winter Extreme Precipitation Variability and Its Drivers in CMIP6 Models, Jeong et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100948

Evaluation of Downscaled CMIP6 Performance for Rainfall and Wind Over the Maritime Continent, Alifdini et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70476

Evaluation of the ALARO1-SFX (CY43T2) regional climate model over Belgium across different resolutions, Dewettinck et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-7911-2026

GCAM-Europe v7.2.0: enhancing policy-relevant climate modelling through spatial and sectoral detail, Sampedro et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-7741-2026

How Observation-Based Data Influence Uncertainty in Local Climate Projections, Taylor et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0146.1

Representation of Long-Term Observed UK Winter Precipitation Trends and Variability in UKCP18 Global Climate Models, Carruthers et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70540

The CMIP6-downscaled CORDEX-Southeast Asia (SEA) ensemble: evaluation and benchmarking for megacities of SEA, Nguyen et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-7653-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02095-y 157 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Enhanced interannual variability of early-winter snowfall in northern Xinjiang since the 1990s and its relationship with Arctic sea ice, Han et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105684

Event-driven atmospheric forcing and meltwater lake response in maritime antarctic, Shah et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1916729

Fate of heat approaching the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf mediated by continental shelf eddies, Stewart et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec8232

Historical and Projected Antarctic Sea Ice Trends Across High-Resolution Coupled Model Hierarchies, Bushuk et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124043

Multiyear tropical warm pool warming drives slowdown in Antarctic mass loss, Wang et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10912-x

Reconsidering the drivers of ice-shelf collapse, Arthur et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76772-1

Relationships between Arctic sea-ice concentration, temperature, and specific humidity in the lower troposphere during 1980–2021, Uhlíková et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-4585-2026

The multilayer ocean circulation melting the 79N Glacier ice tongue, Reinert et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-4563-2026

What SAR Labels Hide About a Changing Arctic, Mahmud, Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008828

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may not be vulnerable to marine ice cliff instability during the 21st century, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.ado7794 38 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Addendum: Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments, Seeger & Minderhoud, Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-11017-1

Evolution of Global Sea-Level Rise Projections and Their Uncertainty, Garner et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007836

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge-Based Flood Risk Assessment Under Combined Scenarios of High Tides and Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2023ef004236 16 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Asian summer monsoon orbital variability directly paced by CO2 and precession, not eccentricity, Millot-Weil et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76856-y

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Dry hydroclimates in the late Palaeocene-early Eocene hothouse world, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-51430-6 10 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Arctic and Tibetan Plateau Tundra Show Divergent Temperature and Precipitation Thresholds Under Climate Change, Zhu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124727

Breaking Boundaries: Multidirectional Responses of Malagasy Bats to Unmitigated Future Climate Change, Stewart-Roberts et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70254

Brood Chamber Carbonate Chemistry in the oyster Ostrea edulis Is Dynamically Shaped by Warming, Acidification, and Ventilation, Gray et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71007

Carbon emissions exacerbating the Western US water crisis, Williams et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03900-6

Climate Controls Cold- But Not Warm-Adapted Sphagnum Distribution and Carbon Sink Capacity, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71006

Climate warming drives thermal shocks and accelerated freshwater habitat fragmentation, Wang et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02731-9

CO2 physiological forcing mitigates climate-driven water limitation on vegetation growth and carbon uptake, Kang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76835-3

Comparative Distribution Projections of Hydrophilic and Xerophytic Invasive Species in Turkey Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios, Tursun et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.74172

Distribution Shifts of Vaccinium Berry Wild Relatives in China Under Climate and Land-Use Changes, Pang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74154

High elevation shrubification in the subarctic during the Holocene Thermal Maximum and 21st century, Harning et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03965-3

Hot temperature during development alters iridescence in Morpho butterflies, Rubin et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag243

Impacts of Climate Change on Alpha and Beta Diversity Patterns of Cerrado anurans, Sabino et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73983

Increasing CO2 levels fertilize C4 grass production, Simpson et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10935-4

Limits on the capacity of an ectotherm to buffer temperature extremes through the construction of a central refuge, Ord & Blazek, Oecologia Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-026-05959-6

Modeling the effects of climate risk on primates globally: New perspectives on conservation priorities, Teng et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeg0031

Population Structure of a Living Fossil, the Atlantic Horseshoe Crab, and Its Vulnerability in the Face of Imminent Climate Change, Luo et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70256

Post-heatwave immune challenge reshapes selection on heatwave responses, Salo et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.260674

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Cirsium vulgare in China Under Climate Change Scenarios Based on Its First Recorded Occurrences in Southern China, Hu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74028

Projected Effects of Climate-induced Changes in Phytoplankton biomass in the Southern South China Sea, Kiel et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-5827-2026

Responses of Antarctic seabird populations to past climate change, Ng et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08322

Soil Warming Shifts Seasonal and Soil Depth-Related Root Growth Dynamics in Subarctic Grasslands, Bhattarai et al., Global Change Biology pdf 10.1111/gcb.71055

The giant Antarctic amphipod Paraceradocus miersi will not fare well if freshening continues in the Southern Ocean, Spicer et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108368

The policy relevance of climate-change scenarios for biodiversity research, Schoeman et al., Nature Reviews Biodiversity 10.1038/s44358-026-00193-7

The ‘Lifeboat Hypothesis’: Aquatic Microplastics in a Warming World—Climate-Resilient Refugia for Bacterial Pathogens, Quilliam & Ormsby, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71078

Thermophilization: Concepts, Methods, and Implications of Changes in Community Composition due to Global Warming, Feeley et al., Global Change Biology pdf 10.1111/gcb.71063

Widespread coral bleaching across subtropical and temperate Japan under record marine heat stress, Kurihara et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-65095-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impacts of marine heatwaves in coastal ecosystems depend on local environmental conditions, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17469 37 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A global atmospheric methane record from a tropical ice core, Lamantia et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10938-1

Analysis of the temporal variability of CO2, CH4 and CO concentrations at Lamto, West Africa, Tiemoko et al., Tellus B Open Access pdf 10.1080/16000889.2020.1863707

Carbon dioxide and methane emissions from plants and peat soil in a Cyperus papyrus wetland in Uganda, Farmer et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2025.0048

Decorrelating carbon and water fluxes in the Amazon Basin, Worden et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75526-3

Environmental controls over greenhouse gas dynamics of tropical peatlands of the Central Congo Basin, Girkin et al., PubMed pmid:42619525

Experimental warming alters iron–carbon interactions and CO2 and CH4 emissions in pristine mangrove soils, Molitor et al., Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122315

Extensive parasite transmission and variation in a functional receptor associated with drug resistance in endemic Schistosoma mansoni, Berger et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adt3721

Hydrological controls on dissolved carbon export from permafrost peatland catchments of northeastern China, Wang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1915601

Lakes Amplify Carbon Emissions Relative to Downstream Export in Aquatic Networks, Alriksson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120340

Land-use change causes rapid carbon losses in Congo Basin peatlands across climate scenarios, whereas the effects of climate change alone are uncertain, Young et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0486

Limited blue carbon potential of intertidal seagrass meadows in the Wadden Sea – a case study in a tidal basin, Mohr et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-5715-2026

Mesenchymal stem cells receive adaptive islet–derived miR-151–containing sEVs to promote β cell compensation in obesity, Guo et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu4196

Methane Emissions From U.S. Lakes Dominated by Ebullition, Shallow Zones, and Anthropogenic Drivers, Shen & Raymond, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124792

Precipitation-dependent nonlinear accumulation of soil organic carbon in response to warming via microbial residues, Chen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03941-x

Quantifying climatic drivers and identifying spatial risks of vegetation carbon sink instability: a case study of central–western Inner Mongolia, Liu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1819623

Shaping of developmental gradients through selection on multiple loci in Antirrhinum, Bradley et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adx2011

Soil disturbance in wetlands by feral pigs increases greenhouse gas emissions, Adame et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-5781-2026

Strategic design of methane observation networks to improve emission estimates: A case study in Africa, Li et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-11893-2026

Surface-water carbon exchange from mangroves and responses to global warming, Ouyang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77058-2

The Fragile Sink: Reconceptualizing Soil Carbon Stabilization and Its Vulnerability Under Global Change, Iqbal et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71071

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A large net carbon loss attributed to anthropogenic and natural disturbances in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2310157121 41 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Bamboo carbon pathways: sustainable approach to climate change mitigation, TK & S, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2026.1876587

ForestERW: a spatially explicit carbon dioxide removal model for practical enhanced rock weathering applications in United States forests, McDonnell et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1855001

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Non-aqueous alkoxide-mediated electrochemical carbon capture, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01614-7 27 cites.

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Decarbonization

Multi-Scenario Carbon Peak Prediction for Aviation Logistics Based on an Extended STIRPAT Model: Empirical Analysis From Guangxi, China, Zhang et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access pdf 10.1002/gdj3.70089

National hydrogen policy inequality in aviation: a hidden barrier to climate mitigation, Rostami et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2713870

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Future hydrogen economies imply environmental trade-offs and a supply-demand mismatch, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-51251-7 180 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Mapping the future of ocean carbon dioxide removal in Australia: site suitability for electrochemical ocean alkalinity enhancement, Benjamin et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1854445

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Technical note: Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Pelagic Impact Intercomparison Project (OAEPIIP), Biogeosciences, 10.5194/bg-21-3665-2024 9 cites.

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Black carbon

Warming potential of atmospheric black carbon modulated by particulate matter, Liu et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02068-0

Aerosols

Future projections of surface dust concentrations in major dust source regions of the Mesopotamian plains, Abadi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109282

Particle Size as a Key Remaining Uncertainty in Dust Direct Radiative Effect After EMIT: An Earth System Model Study, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121571

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109077 73 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

A caution on climate hope, Blakey & Hudson, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2721047

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A 27-country test of communicating the scientific consensus on climate change, Nature Human Behaviour, 10.1038/s41562-024-01928-2 47 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Circular nutrient recycling via Juncus effusus-derived biochar: impacts on soil properties, sorghum yield, and GHG fluxes, Wilson et al., ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH Open Access 10.1186/s40068-026-00496-w

Climate-Induced Severe Water Scarcity Events as Harbingers of Global Wheat Price, Trnka et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006095

Modeling agricultural water deficit risk in finland under CMIP6 climate scenarios, Jahromi et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-65956-w

Overcoming barriers to achieving a Net Zero agri-food sector: Challenges and solutions, McGuire et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104469

Research on the impact mechanism of climate risks on financial vulnerability of farmers in typical ecologically fragile regions of Northwestern China, Liu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1892381

Social network structure and climate change adaptation information diffusion among dairy farmers: evidence from northern Tunisia, Gara et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1848645

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Optimistic growth of marginal region plantations under climate warming: Assessing divergent drought resilience, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17459 36 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A Subtle Atmospheric Shift Is Redefining Winter Hydrology on the Tibetan Plateau, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121477

Carbon emissions exacerbating the Western US water crisis, Williams et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03900-6

Equatorial Extreme Convective Storms Are Expanding and Becoming More Persistent, Zhuang et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2026av002370

Synoptic drivers of the August 2024 record-breaking rainfall in the Chadian Sahara: dynamics, thermodynamics, and socio-economic consequences, Tchinda et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-1425-2026

Time Series Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Dynamics Using CETA and MCETA Methods, Gul et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70484

Warming-driven rise in soil moisture entropy signals growing instability risk in the Asian Water Tower, Xie et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76955-w

Yellow River sediment sinks exhibit divergent decadal responses to anthropogenic and climatic forcing, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03969-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Declining Reservoir Reliability and Increasing Reservoir Vulnerability: Long-Term Observations Reveal Longer and More Severe Periods of Low Reservoir Storage for Major United States Reservoirs, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109476 26 cites.

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Climate change economics

Developing double materiality for climate-related financial policy, Stiroh, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02725-7

Extreme temperatures and low-income household finance: evidence from payday loans, Xie et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76945-y

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Equity weighting increases the social cost of carbon, Science, 10.1126/science.adn1488 25 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Fast Today, Fair Tomorrow: Competing Priorities Shaping EU Climate Law and Policy, Accogli et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70081

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades, Science, 10.1126/science.adl6547 303 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

AQUA v1.0.0: The Application for QUality Assessment for the Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin – the core engine, Nurisso et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-7725-2026

Climate change adaptation strategies of rural women-headed households in southwestern Ethiopia, Sherif et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-04230-5

Ethical and governance frontiers in big data for climate resilience, Pokharel & AlQahtani, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101723

Incident Risk Prediction for Global Maritime Networks Under a Changing Climate, Azadnia & Miller-Hooks, Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.70340

Leveraging social capital for climate change adaptation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya, Omondi, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2721649

Thermal justice in urban climate change adaptation, Gobatti et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02727-5

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Lessons from a decade of adaptive pathways studies for climate adaptation, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102907 114 cites.

buffer/CCAD

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change and hypertension: global trends, temporal patterns, and regional insights, Ye et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1703142

From climate hazards to early warning: Salmonella as a sentinel for the Climate–AMR–WASH nexus, Tang et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001040

Global analysis of sub-daily urban impacts on atmospheric variables and thermal comfort in a climate change scenario, Hoffmann et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103079

Marine heatwaves and undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries, Gray et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2528506123

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Integrating effects of overheating on human health into buildings’ life cycle assessment, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10.1007/s11367-024-02353-3 11 cites.

buffer/CCHH

Other

Ecological regime shifts decouple organic carbon sequestration from nutrient-driven productivity in Anthropocene shallow lakes, Huang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105686

Gender, power, and tokenism in nature-based solutions to climate change, Yamoah & Nyantakyi-Frimpong, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2712491

Perfluoroalkyl substance release in permafrost surface waters is projected to increase under global warming, Yu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03946-6

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The history and future of IPCC special reports: A dual role of politicisation and normalisation, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-024-03788-1 13 cites.

buffer/OTHR

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Future Projections of Burned Area in Europe Highlight the Importance of Human Action, Billing et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71043

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Bring digital twins back to Earth, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.915 29 cites.

buffer/IOPN Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Unlocking California's Flexible Load: A Durable Blueprint for Affordability and Reliability, Cutter et al., GridLab, Kevala, and Energy and Environmental Economics

Realizing the full potential of flexible load requires consolidating California’s fragmented landscape into a clear set of complementary pathways anchored by three core principles: compensating below verified avoided costs, paying exclusively for measured performance, and building on standardized, interoperable program architecture. Time-of-use (TOU) and dynamic rate structures can drive persistent behavior shifts without counterfactual baselines or aggregator overhead, but they are unlikely to fully deliver the benefits that many hope for. Only by advancing rate design and programmatic pathways together can California fully unlock the state’s load flexibility potential. To capture the value rates leave behind, load-serving entities (LSEs) should deploy three standardized mechanisms:- Retail Pay-for-Performance: Accessible, non-firm, as-available load reduction compensated against verified individual-level regression baselines. - Firm Capacity: Contracted, predictable load shift carrying Resource Adequacy (RA) value and clear performance accountability.- Wholesale Market Access: Streamlined direct California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market participation tailored for large commercial loads and sophisticated aggregations. Locationally targeted dispatch specifically tailored to defer infrastructure upgrades at high-value, constrained distribution nodes.

Evaluating the implementation and effectiveness of heat action plans, Sobhaninia et al., Red Cross Red Crescent Global Disaster Preparedness Center

The authors analyzed the content of Heat Action Plans (HAPs) from different regions of the world, interviewed local officials involved in HAP development and implementation to understand their impact then developed and piloted an actionable HAP Implementation and Effectiveness (HAPIE) Tool that can help cities to track the implementation and effectiveness of HAPs.

Advancing policy coherence for agrifood systems transformation, Bedeau et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

The authors examine how policy coherence is being advanced in practice to enable agrifood systems transformation, drawing on experiences from 10 countries. It explores the continuous and iterative processes that countries are following to align agriculture, climate, biodiversity, nutrition and equity agendas and translate shared goals into policy processes, institutional arrangements and coordinated action across sectors and levels of governance. By focusing on implementation rather than policy design alone, the authors highlight enabling factors, common challenges and practical entry points to move beyond siloed approaches. The publication is intended for policymakers, practitioners and development partners seeking actionable insights to advance multiple agrifood systems outcomes in complex national contexts.

Climate change is driving unprecedented European ocean temperatures, with severe impacts for marine life, Bergin et al., World Weather Attribution

Researchers from Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, Ireland, and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme sea surface temperature (SSTs) conditions along the European coasts in July 2026. This year’s high SSTs have been remarkable not only in their intensity, but also in how early in the year they were reached. To assess whether all of the observed warming is attributable to human-induced climate change, we combine observations and climate models. In the Celtic region, climate models and observations show very similar trends, while in all other regions the observed trends are much stronger than those simulated by climate models. Despite this, the authors found that in the two Mediterranean regions, the increase in warming attributable to human-induced climate change is about 2°C, substantially surpassing the level of global warming, even under this conservative estimate.

Water Reuse Energy Demands and Water Quality Metrics, Shurtliff et al., Idaho National Laboratory

The authors discuss strategies for enhancing water resilience in energy production by advancing water reuse and reclamation technologies, particularly for thermoelectric power plants and data centers. The focus is on efficiently closing the water loop by processing discharged cooling water to recover valuable minerals, thereby reducing energy-intensive water sourcing and management. This approach aims to alleviate water scarcity issues, especially in arid regions, while also promoting operational sustainability.

Water Availability for Cooling Systems: Assessing Demands, Constraints, and Alternative Sources for Thermoelectric Plants and Data Centers, Bastidas Pacheco et al., Idaho National Laboratory

The authors address Water-for-Energy by focusing on improving water management to provide additional cooling water to further thermoelectric energy production and support data center deployments. They assessed existing demands and constraints on cooling water and identified alternative sources of water to meet growing needs of large-scale water and energy users.

All hazards operational guidance: responding to climate disruption, Chartered Institution of Highways & Transportation

The authors provide guidance to help local highway authorities (LHAs) design, implement, and test their operational response to disruption to their networks caused by extreme heat, flooding, wildfires, and other hazards. Leaders must ensure that an operational framework is in place that allows the authority to act quickly when faced with credible risks from such events, prioritize interventions where consequences for communities are greatest, and make available suitably qualified, experienced, and empowered professionals to take timely, defensible decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The operational framework should facilitate coordinated action across the organization and with partners, supported by “good enough” information, sound governance arrangements, and effective communication. It should also ensure that decisions are recorded and used after the event to inform future planning and investment.

Climate Resilience as Strategy: Scaling Corporate Action on Physical Risks from Climate Change, Radulovic et al., Systemiq and the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions

Most companies now acknowledge growing physical risk and have begun strengthening business continuity. But maturity still lags exposure. Many adaptation plans push implementation far into the future — and only 25% of corporate adaptation measures are genuinely strategic in nature. A key gap is valuation — the ability to quantify avoided losses in ways finance teams trust. Without this, resilience falls down the priority list against nearer-term initiatives. The mismatch between capital planning cycles and multi-decade physical risk trajectories compounds the problem. Guidance is expanding quickly, and strongest on risk assessment and disclosure. But it remains fragmented and uneven on the elements that convert insight into action: valuing resilience, building financeable pipelines of interventions, and enabling ecosystem collaboration.

Survey reveals gap between climate change concern and actual news coverage, Climate News Tracker/Kantar

A survey of journalists and production staff across UK public service media concluded climate reporting needs new approaches. Broadcast journalists in Britain say they rank climate change and environmental issues above many of the traditional pillars of news coverage – including the National Health Service, international conflict and immigration – yet this is not reflected in what audiences actually see and hear. More than 80% of respondents said crowded news agendas and packed running orders hinder climate coverage. Program editors and channel schedulers may be willing to extend a bulletin for a dramatic, unexpected and consequential story, but the climate crisis rarely meets the threshold for such immediate editorial prioritization. The planet heating up is a slow-burning story whose significance has developed over years rather than hours, making it harder to compete with the urgency of daily news. Journalists also highlighted the difficulty of finding strong editorial “pegs” for climate stories outside major weather events or political announcements. Some 65% said climate stories do not always have a clear or timely news peg. That is disappointing.

Current Best Practices on Wildfire Risk Reduction for Electric Transmission and Distribution Systems, Coleman et al., Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

To help utilities, states, and municipalities address growing wildfire risks, the authors prepared a comprehensive report outlining current best practices for wildfire planning, prevention, response, and recovery. They highlight utility-led strategies for mitigating wildfire risks from electric transmission and distribution systems. This work underscores the urgent need for proactive investment in resilience as wildfire threats intensify across the nation.

Managing construction in a changing climate, Suzanne Davenport, NHBC Foundation

The authors explore how climate change is affecting construction across the UK, the effects of extreme weather on construction quality, programs, materials and costs, the risks to worker health, safety and wellbeing, practical guidance and checklists for site managers to prepare for extreme weather, and, resilient construction solutions, technologies and techniques to improve climate adaptation on site.

U.S. gas power proposals tied to data centers nearly double in six months, Jenny Martos, GEM

Driven by rapid data center expansion, U.S. gas-fired power capacity in development jumped 50% to 378 GW, with Texas leading the push and developers pivoting to faster-to-install engines to skip supply backlogs. However, severe turbine supply constraints, project delays, local moratoriums, and mounting public opposition leave the true scale of this US$647 billion gas buildout highly uncertain.

Evaluation of ARPA-E's Mission and Goals, Marchant et al., National Academies of Science

The Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) was established in 2009 to address barriers to developing transformational science and technology solutions for the nation's energy and environmental challenges. The authors evaluate ARPA-E's operations and assesses the effects of its' programs to date. The authors also explore the agency's future challenges and opportunities, recommending ways ARPA-E can build on its' early successes to respond effectively to emerging energy needs. Key recommendations address funding and leadership stability, strategic planning and evaluation, risk and failure management, process innovation and experimentation, and transparency and public communication. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections

Electric vehicle sales are a surprising beneficiary of the Trump presidency – at least outside of the United States.

The Iran conflict caused global oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel in March, April, and May of this year. Gasoline prices soon followed suit, exceeding $4 per gallon in the United States most days since April Fools’ Day.

As the biggest consumer of oil from the Middle East, Asia was hit hardest by its rising prices, shortages, and restrictions. But China’s measures to cut back on its oil imports have prevented global oil prices from escalating as high as many experts predicted.

Electric vehicles are one contributing factor. A recent analysis estimated that China’s rapid adoption of EVs has reduced the country’s oil consumption by 1.5 million barrels per day, or nearly 10%.

A new global electric car market report from the International Energy Agency, or IEA, also concluded that the Iran conflict and associated energy crisis “has clearly reinforced the case for EVs as a way to address energy security and fuel cost concerns," and that it “may therefore further accelerate ongoing shifts in global car markets towards more electrification.”

The share of global new car sales that are electrified – meaning both fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids – has grown steadily in recent years, according to the IEA. In 2020, EVs represented under 5% of global new car sales. That share rose rapidly to 20% in 2024 and reached one-in-four new cars sold last year. 

A slump followed by renewed interest

EV policies in China and the U.S. are a big deal, because 38% of all cars sold in 2025 were purchased in China and another 18% in the United States. 

“China and the U.S. are such big markets in absolute terms that they shape the global picture,” explained Euan Graham, senior analyst at the energy think tank Ember, in an email.

As an example, EV sales abruptly slumped during the first two months of 2026, after Republicans eliminated the U.S. federal EV tax credit and China slashed its EV tax exemption.

But on the last day of February, the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran, which responded by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the global oil supply previously flowed. 

The price of oil and refined fuels spiked, and interest in EVs followed. Since March, electric car sales have surged in Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. In Europe, the world’s third-largest auto market, EVs now represent nearly 30% of new car sales. Their popularity has even begun to rebound in China and the U.S.

Electric vehicle sales in various regions during the first half of 2026 compared to the first half of 2025. (Image credit: IEA/CC BY 4.0)

As to just how much the Iran conflict supercharged EV sales, “I think it’s a bit tricky to nail down precisely,” said Elizabeth Connelly, energy technology and transport analyst at IEA and co-author of the report, in an email.

That's because individual countries’ policies and economic conditions have a big influence on consumer behavior. But the data certainly indicate that the war and resulting high fuel prices made EVs more appealing to consumers.

For example, the IEA report noted that in China, total car sales have declined this year due largely to an economic slowdown in the country. That slump has hit internal combustion engine car sales particularly hard. While the EV share fell to 42% of China’s new car sales in the first two months of the year when government subsidies were first slashed, it quickly rebounded after the Iran conflict began. Electrified vehicles set records by exceeding 60% of China’s reduced volume of new car sales in each of the past three months.

That makes the United States’ persistently stagnant EV market unique. 

“As some markets see a step change in EV sales this year, boosted by the conflict in Iran, the U.S. is seeing sales slump having rolled back policy support,” Graham said.

Electrified vehicles have represented under 7.5% of new American car sales in each of the 10 months since federal tax credits were eliminated. Although rising gasoline prices spurred record domestic purchases of hybrid cars and used EVs, new EVs have not experienced the same sales boost.

Read: The rest of the world is lapping the U.S. in the EV race

The share of quarterly new car sales in the U.S. since 2018 that were fully electric (green), plug-in hybrids (blue), and standard hybrids (gray). The start and end of the Inflation Reduction Act EV tax credit availability are indicated in red. (Image credit: Created by Dana Nuccitelli with data from Argonne National Laboratory)

The future of the car market is electric, to China’s benefit

As China’s domestic car sales have slowed this year, the country’s automakers have responded by ramping up their vehicle exports. That’s especially true of EVs, which the IEA reports surged to 35% of Chinese car exports in 2025 and 45% in the first half of 2026.

Total number of car exports (left frame) and percentage of those that are electrified (right frame) from China (red), the European Union (blue), the United States (green), and Japan (purple). (Image credit: IEA / CC BY 4.0)

And the IEA data illustrates that fossil-fueled cars are quickly going the way of the dinosaurs. Global internal combustion engine vehicle sales reached their apex in 2017. The COVID pandemic caused car sales to plummet, and although they have now rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, all of the post-pandemic sales recovery has come from EVs. Fewer cars with internal combustion engines are being sold around the world today than were in 2011.

Global car sales of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV; gray); hybrid electric vehicles (HEV; yellow); electric vehicles (EV, including both fully electric and plug-in hybrids; blue); and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (green; too small to be visible), including IEA 2026 estimates (2026e). (Image credit: IEA / CC BY 4.0)

And a recent forecast by JD Power predicted that EVs will comprise a majority of new global car sales by 2033, reaching over 80% of the new car market by 2040.

JD Power forecast of the electrified share of new car sales in China (red), Europe (blue), the U.S. (purple), and the global average (black). (Image credit: Created by Dana Nuccitelli with data from JD Power)

The IEA is a bit less optimistic in its EV sales forecasts. 

“Our two policy-based scenarios project around a 50% electric car sales share by 2035,” Connelly said. 

The IEA is particularly bearish about the U.S., expecting no more than 20% of new American car sales to be electrified by 2035 unless new policies are introduced. 

“The changes in U.S. policy over the past two years have pulled down the projected global EV sales share,” Connelly said. “That being said, there is upside potential to our outlook based on the progress seen in emerging markets and developing economies, and more broadly depending on how policymakers respond to the recent energy crisis.”

Chinese automakers dominate the electrified sector, accounting for about two-thirds of all global EV sales today. Expanding Chinese EV exports have contributed to rapidly growing electric car adoption in countries around the world, including Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Belgium, the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, Russia, and Ethiopia. In total, the IEA reports that 50 countries set records for EV sales in the second quarter of 2026.

Can American automakers survive?

The rapid global transition to EVs and the Chinese dominance of that market have American automakers frightened about their companies’ futures. Recent U.S. government policies and regulatory rollbacks have undercut an already weak domestic EV market, and with the exception of Tesla, American automakers have been unable to compete with Chinese EVs in the international market. 

There remain a few glimmers of hope in the American EV market. California, which accounts for one-quarter to one-third of annual electrified vehicle sales in the country, just launched its own rebate program for first-time EV buyers. And American legacy automakers like Ford and newcomers like Slate are taking innovative approaches in an effort to introduce more affordable electric vehicles.

But unless those efforts achieve success soon, the formerly dominant American auto industry will be relegated to fighting over the scraps of an ever-shrinking internal combustion engine vehicle market as the world transitions to an electrified future, unintentionally supercharged by the consequences of Trump’s Iran war.

This article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

//

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Do wind turbines release more emissions than burning fossil fuels?

Wind turbines generate emissions during construction and transportation, but their overall climate impact is far lower than that of fossil fuels.

“Lifecycle emissions” is a measure of all emissions from raw materials, manufacturing, transportation, installation, operation, and disposal. A National Renewable Energy Laboratory review estimates that wind power produces about 13 grams of CO2-equivalent per kilowatt-hour over its full lifecycle. Natural gas averages about 486 grams, while coal is roughly 1,001 grams–or about 77 times wind’s emissions.

Most wind power emissions occur before turbines begin generating electricity, mainly from transporting components and to a lesser degree, manufacturing. Once operating, turbines generate electricity without directly burning fuel, allowing their low-emissions electricity to offset the emissions associated with their production and transportation.

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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electricity Generation: Update

Yale Climate Connections What’s the carbon footprint of a wind turbine?

Industrial Ecology Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Utility-Scale Wind Power

Journal of Cleaner Production Life-cycle green-house gas emissions of onshore and offshore wind turbines

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator and climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).

Video description

In the fight against climate change, the world has made immense progress on renewable power - with wind and solar growing faster than ever. And finally carbon dioxide emissions are flatlining. But if we've made so much progress, why is CO2 building up in our atmosphere faster than ever before? And what can we do to finally protect our climate and ourselves?

Support ClimateAdam on patreon: https://patreon.com/climateadam

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 16, 2026 thru Sat, August 22, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Education and Communication (6 articles)

• The false and the furious: We aren't just bothered by different beliefs-we're bothered when we think others are wrong When people use facts to defend their preferences, tastes or values, they may turn a disagreement over priorities into a dispute over who is right and who is wrong, turning up the emotional heat. The Conversation, Andras Molnar, George Loewenstein, Aug 15, 2026.
• `It is not only a future certainty - the disaster is already here`: why we need climate fiction As wildfires rage across Europe and Britain swelters through its hottest summer on record, literary fiction has a vital role to play in capturing the severe consequences of climate crisis The Guardian, Tara Menon, Aug 16, 2026.
• Climate Trunk - Science Summary post of John Lang's Climate Trunk visuals in the "Science" ring Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, Aug 18, 2026.
• Climate doom may discourage climate action, but there`s a way to counter it The Conversation, Sander van der Linden & Rachel O'Boyle, Aug 18, 2026.
• The cognitive bias behind bad climate math A new study finds two persistent mental shortcuts—not ignorance—are why people keep overrating recycling and underrating flying less. The Anthropocene, Sarah DeWeerdt, Aug 18, 2026.
• In a Summer of Catastrophe, Climate Scientist`s Words from the 80s Playing Out A review of what scientists were saying to the public about climate change in the 1980s. This is Not Cool, Peter Sinclair, Aug 19, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (6 articles)

• In Germany, record heat meets climate action fatigue DW, Oliver Pieper, Aug 17, 2026.
• UK politicians vastly overestimate public opposition to climate policies, study finds Members of Parliament from the UK's three biggest political parties in the House of Commons significantly overestimate levels of public resistance to major policy proposals for tackling climate change, a University of Cambridge study suggests. Phys.org, Gaby Clark, Aug 19, 2026.
• How far-right parties are using extreme weather events to boost their cause Political scientists explain why extreme weather events like this summer's European heatwaves can drive support to parties that traditionally deny human-made climate change. NPR, Ruth Sherlock, Aug 19, 2026.
• How Florida quietly removed climate change content from textbooks Publishers acceded to state requests watering down information on climate change’s impact, WUSF/Hechinger Report investigation finds. Now the state has turned to updating its science standards The Hechinger Report, Jessica Meszaros and Katie Worth, Aug 20, 2026.
• How Trump Is Trying to Crush California`s Climate Policies At least a half-dozen federal agencies have taken action against the state that has led the nation in environmental protections. New York Times, Maxine Joselow, Aug 20, 2026.
• Extreme Heat Waves Fuel Political Tensions in Europe At the limits of adaptation, governments face a choice: point fingers, or seize the moment for transformational change. Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Aug 21, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (4 articles)

• With Puerto Rico`s water crisis, climate change meets ineptitude LA Times, Carlos De Loera, Aug 14, 2026.
• Fire rangers of Mongolian steppe: climate crisis spurs revival of ancient knowledge - photo essay Fire has always be part of life on the grasslands, but has grown worse due to rising temperatures and severe droughts. In response, people have turned to their nomadic heritage to help tackle the blazes The Guardian, Michael O Snyder, Aug 16, 2026.
• Flights over Atlantic will adjust paths in test to reduce contrails Hundreds of commercial flights will be told to change their paths over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean during the next two winters to show how minor altitude adjustments can reduce aviation’s climate impact. AP News, Jennifer McDermott, Aug 19, 2026.
• As Minnesota gets warmer and wetter, what does that mean for drought? Climate change demands climate adaptation; Minnesota Public Radio unpacks how this looks for farmers and others in daily life. MPR News, Harshawn Ratanpal, Aug 21, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (4 articles)

• Scientists detect a surprising shift in human blood as atmospheric CO2 rises Researchers analyzing more than two decades of U.S. health data found that blood bicarbonate levels have climbed about 7% since 1999, while calcium and phosphorus have declined—changes that closely track increasing atmospheric CO2. Science Daily , The Kids Research Institute, Australia, Aug 15, 2026.
• Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather Carbon Brief, Robert McSweeney and Daisy Dunne, Aug 18, 2026.
• The pace of climate change matters more than overall heat in the race to save key Atlantic currents, study finds The rate of global warming, rather than the extra heat itself, could determine whether a system of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will cross a tipping point, new research suggests. Live Science, Sascha Pare, Aug 18, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #34 2026 Skeptical Science's weekly survey of the entire scope of climate research, from physics to policy. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Aug 20, 2026.

Health Aspects of Climate Change (3 articles)

• As temperatures get hotter, pesticides are more dangerous to farmworkers Research shows heat amplifies the dangers of pesticides for farmworkers, and that the problem is poised to grow as the global climate warms. Inside Climate News, Amy Green, Aug 17, 2026.
• A federal case in Texas could change how we treat prisoners during hot weather As heat waves intensify, advocates are pushing for protections for incarcerated people, who have little ability to escape dangerous temperatures. Yale Climate Connections, Sarah Kennedy, Aug 21, 2026.
• Heat wave-hit Europe logs over 30,000 excess summer deaths: First figures Phys.org, Luca MATTEUCCI, Olivia BUGAULT, Pascale JUILLIARD , Aug 22, 2026.

Climate Change Impacts (2 articles)

• Is this El Niño a glimpse of a future, hotter Earth? There are important differences between long-term global warming and El Niño warming The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler & Zeke Hausfather, Aug 17, 2026.
• Emissions are Flatlining. So Why’s CO2 Rising at Record Speed? ClimateAdam on Youtube, Adam Levy, Aug 22, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• What happened after 13 young people in Hawaii sued over climate change Charlotte Madin joined the lawsuit at age 12. Today, she is part of a youth council advising the Hawaii Department of Transportation on climate priorities. Yale Climate Connections, Bridgett Ennis, Aug 17, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• Witnessing a grand jeté of climate-change denial Defense and policy analyst Gwynne Dyer critiques climate change fatalists. Brandon Sun, Gwynne Dyer, Aug 19, 2026.

Miscellaneous (1 article)

• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2026 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 9, 2026 thru Sat, August 15, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Aug 16, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!